Temporal and Spatial Dynamics and Drivers of China’s Agriculture Net Carbon Sink

[Objective] Clarifying the temporal and spatial dynamics and drivers of China’s agriculture net carbon sink provides a theoretical basis for promoting low-carbon development in the agricultural. [Methods] Based on the 19 types of the major carbon sources form four including of rice cultivation, agricultural land use, agricultural materials, and livestock breeding, and 7 types of carbon sinks, this study calculated the agricultural net carbon sink in China and its 31 provinces and cities (excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan) from 2002 to 2022, using Arc GIS statistical software analyze temporal and spatial dynamics of agricultural net carbon sink, and using the LMDI model to analyze the drivers agricultural net carbon sink. [Results] The primary source of carbon emissions from agriculture had shifted from enteric fermentation and manure management in the livestock sector to agricultural materials in the plantation sector. Carbon sinks were dominated by the contribution of rice and maize. Overall, there has been fluctuating upward trends in both levels of agricultural net carbon sinks and carbon sinks. There was a spatial distribution pattern with high levels observed in northeast China while low levels were found in western regions. Furthermore, there was a significant positive correlation between net agricultural carbon sinks which exhibited features of high-high or low-low aggregation. Moreover, there was an increasing trend in spatial aggregation. Agricultural net carbon sink could be restrained by factors such as the intensity of the agricultural net carbon sink, the structure of the agricultural industry and the size of the rural population; however, it can be enhanced by economic development. [Conclusion] China’s agriculture showed a positive trend regarding net carbon sinks. Optimizing its industry structure along with improving production methods are crucial for promoting low-carbon development and achieving a sustainable cycle.