Prediction of carbon emissions from energy consumption in China under the “dual carbon” goal

[Objective] Facing the global issue of “carbon peak and carbon neutrality”, this study aimed to predict and simulate carbon emissions from energy consumption, explore the feasibility of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality time, and provide theoretical basis for promoting emission reduction. [Methods] In this study, the carbon emission coefficient method was used to calculate the carbon emissions from energy consumption in China from 1986 to 2019. Considering factors from the five aspects of economy, society, environment, energy, and technology, an indicator system including 18 variables was established, and five main factors were screened out by Lasso regression. Based on three machine learning methods and Lasso regression, six carbon emission prediction models including support vector regression (SVR), random forest (RF), back propagation neural network (BP), Lasso-SVR, Lasso-RF, and Lasso-BP were constructed. The models were evaluated based on the mean squared error (MSE) and mean average error (MAE). Combined with the scenario analysis method to set four scenarios of new normalization, green low-carbon, 2 ℃ target, and 1.5 ℃ target, the best prediction model was selected to simulate and analyze China’s energy consumption carbon emissions from 2020 to 2060 under the four scenarios. [Results] Under the four scenarios, with the intensification of emission reduction efforts, China’s carbon peaking platform period is shortened. The time points of carbon peak during the platform period in China are 2035, 2030, 2026, and 2025 respectively, and the peak values are 9.580, 7.448, 6.723 and 6.523 Gt CO2e. Under the 2 ℃ and 1.5 ℃ scenarios, China can achieve carbon neutrality as scheduled. Under all four scenarios China may achieve the 2 ℃ temperature rise target, but under the first two scenarios China will not achieve the 1.5 ℃ target. [Conclusion] Under the four scenarios, the peak value and peak time of China’s energy consumption carbon emissions are different, and the possibility of achieving carbon neutrality is also different. In order to achieve the goals of carbon peak and carbon neutrality as soon as possible, China must promote the optimization of industrial structure and energy system structure, increase investment in green assets, and help the development of emission reduction with technological progress.