Predicting response to combination evofosfamide and immunotherapy under hypoxic conditions in murine models of colon cancer

The goal of this study is to develop a mathematical model that captures the interaction between evofosfamide, immunotherapy, and the hypoxic landscape of the tumor in the treatment of tumors. Recently, we showed that evofosfamide, a hypoxia-activated prodrug, can synergistically improve treatment outcomes when combined with immunotherapy, while evofosfamide alone showed no effects in an <italic>in vivo</italic> syngeneic model of colorectal cancer. However, the mechanisms behind the interaction between the tumor microenvironment in the context of oxygenation (hypoxic, normoxic), immunotherapy, and tumor cells are not fully understood. To begin to understand this issue, we develop a system of ordinary differential equations to simulate the growth and decline of tumors and their vascularization (oxygenation) in response to treatment with evofosfamide and immunotherapy (6 combinations of scenarios). The model is calibrated to data from <italic>in vivo</italic> experiments on mice implanted with colon adenocarcinoma cells and longitudinally imaged with [¹⁸F]-fluoromisonidazole ([¹⁸F]FMISO) positron emission tomography (PET) to quantify hypoxia. The results show that evofosfamide is able to rescue the immune response and sensitize hypoxic tumors to immunotherapy. In the hypoxic scenario, evofosfamide reduces tumor burden by $ 45.07 \pm 2.55 $%, compared to immunotherapy alone, as measured by tumor volume. The model accurately predicts the temporal evolution of five different treatment scenarios, including control, hypoxic tumors that received immunotherapy, normoxic tumors that received immunotherapy, evofosfamide alone, and hypoxic tumors that received combination immunotherapy and evofosfamide. The average concordance correlation coefficient (CCC) between predicted and observed tumor volume is $ 0.86 \pm 0.05 $. Interestingly, the model values to fit those five treatment arms was unable to accurately predict the response of normoxic tumors to combination evofosfamide and immunotherapy (CCC = $ -0.064 \pm 0.003 $). However, guided by the sensitivity analysis to rank the most influential parameters on the tumor volume, we found that increasing the tumor death rate due to immunotherapy by a factor of $ 18.6 \pm 9.3 $ increases CCC of $ 0.981 \pm 0.001 $. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to mathematically predict and describe the increased efficacy of immunotherapy following evofosfamide.