Estimating Suitable Areas for Dry Almond (Amygdalus communis L.) Cultivation Development in Fars Province using Geographic Information System (GIS)

IntroductionDrought stress is one of the major environmental stresses affecting more than 60% of Iran's area. The use of drought resistant plants, especially Almonds (Amygdalus communis L.)  that grow in hilly areas with calcareous and stony soils, is of great importance. Iran is recognized as the fifth largest almond producer in the world. Almond cultivation not only has high nutritional value but can also contribute to ecosystem improvement, increase farmers' income, and create job opportunities. Fars province is one of the suitable regions for almond cultivation, ranking first in terms of under cultivation of dry almonds and sixth in terms of under cultivation of irrigated almonds. However, almond performance in this province is not satisfactory and is positioned lower. It appears that the province has not fully utilized its potential, and almond cultivation in many suitable lands has been neglected. Therefore, this study focuses on analyzing land suitability for almond cultivation in Fars province by integrating the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and fuzzy algorithm with Geographic Information System (GIS).Materials and MethodsIn order to estimate the extent of suitable areas for dry almond cultivation in Fars province, four criteria (including climatic, topographic, environmental adaptation, and socio-economic) and 14 sub-criteria were used. These sub-criteria include elevation, land slope, slope aspects, land use, soil texture, seedling growth temperature, minimum temperature during flowering stage, relative humidity flowering stage, growth cycle temperature, fruit formation and ripening stage temperature, mean annual precipitation, distance from the road, distance from water levels and distance from population centers. The weights of criteria and sub-criteria in the study were calculated using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) process and Expert Choice software. After fuzzy mapping and combining fuzzy scores with the weights obtained from the AHP analysis, the Fuzzy overlay algorithm was used to overlay different thematic layers (climatic, topographic, socio-economic, environmental adaptation). Finally, the map estimating the extent of suitable areas for almond cultivation was classified into five classes.Results and Discussion In this research, suitable areas for almond cultivation have been identified using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and GIS. These areas were selected based on 14 different sub-criteria. The findings identified mean annual precipitation as the most critical sub-criterion for almond tree cultivation, followed by elevation, mean seedling growth temperature, and relative humidity during the flowering stage. After fuzzifying the maps and combining the fuzzy scores with the assigned weights, thematic maps were generated for each criterion. Analysis of these maps revealed that the most limiting factors for almond cultivation in Fars Province are climatic conditions (including precipitation, mean minimum temperature during the flowering stage, and temperatures during the fruit formation and ripening stages) and topography (slope percentage and elevation). Despite these limitations, the study found that Fars Province has significant potential for dry almond cultivation. Specifically, the study determined that highly suitable, suitable, and moderately suitable lands for almond cultivation account for 9.02%, 16.46%, and 21.63% of the province's area, respectively. The highly suitable zones, covering approximately 9.02% of the province, are particularly favorable for almond cultivation. Additionally, suitable and moderately suitable zones make up 16.46% and 21.63% of the region's area, respectively, further supporting the potential for almond farming in the province. However, the suitability of about 17.09% of the region for almond cultivation is low, and 5.01% of the province area is unsuitable for almond cultivation. Additionally, around 30.79% of the total province area is not recommended for almond cultivation due to land use types. In general, the northwestern, western, and southwestern areas of Fars province have suitable capability, and the southeastern region of Fars province has unsuitable capability for dry almond tree cultivation. Based on the analysis and results obtained, the importance of proper planning for agricultural crop cultivation and appropriate land suitability analysis for optimal land resource utilization for sustainable agricultural development is evident.ConclusionBased on the findings, Fars province holds significant potential for dry almond cultivation development, yet it has not fully utilized all of its capabilities to date. Consequently, it is recommended that the expansion of almond tree cultivation in this province be prioritized. Proper planning and optimal utilization of suitable areas in Fars province, considering environmental conditions and defined criteria, will enhance the performance of almond cultivation and facilitate sustainable agricultural development in this region. The results of this study can be valuable to all individuals and organizations active in the field of agricultural development and land resource management (including farmers and horticulturists in Fars province, officials and policymakers related to agriculture and rural development, researchers, and academics in geology, agriculture, and sustainable natural resource development in Fars province) and assist them in decision making regarding almond cultivation development.AcknowledgementsThe authors of the present study would like to express their gratitude to the collaboration of the National Meteorological Organization for providing the necessary data for this research.