Estimating the sea level rise responsibility of industrial carbon producers
2025
Shaina Sadai | Meghana Ranganathan | Alexander Nauels | Zebedee Nicholls | Delta Merner | Kristina Dahl | Rachel Licker | Brenda Ekwurzel
Global mean sea levels have risen at an accelerating rate over the past century in response, primarily to greenhouse gas emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels. We use MAGICC7, a reduced complexity climate-carbon cycle model, to quantify how emissions traced to the Carbon Majors, the world’s 122 largest fossil fuel and cement producers, from 1854–2020 contributed to present-day surface air temperature rise, and sea level rise both historically and projected through 2300. We find that emissions traced to these industrial actors have contributed 37%–58% to present day surface air temperature rise and 24%–37% to the observed global mean sea level rise to date. Critically, these emissions through 2020 are expected to contribute an additional 0.26–0.55 m of global sea level rise through 2300. We find that attribution of past emissions to projected future sea level rise is robust regardless of how emissions trajectories evolve in the coming centuries.
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