Modeling sediment concentrations and loads for two small agricultural watersheds in Prince-Edward-Island (Canada): present conditions and a future scenario

The degradation of soils and its detrimental consequences on aquatic environments is an important research topic in agricultural regions such as Prince Edward Island (PEI, Canada). Enhanced information related to suspended sediments in watercourses can serve as an effective decision-making tool in agricultural land management. This study aims to compare flow, suspended sediment concentrations (SSC), and loads using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in two watersheds in Prince Edward Island (PEI). The final investigations will focus on the potential variations in hydrological and sedimentary values in the future using a relatively pessimistic climate change scenario. Finally, the projected sediment concentrations and loads will be analyzed, considering their potential impacts on ecosystems. Water level and turbidity were recorded using two water level loggers and two optical backscatter sensors (OBS) deployed in the Tuplin Creek and Spring Valley watersheds. These instruments continuously recorded suspended sediments and flow data from June 2021 to September 2022. The data were used to manually calibrate the hydrological and suspended sediment models. The understanding of sediment loads and the benefits of proposed changes to agricultural practices can be tested with the SWAT model, as it incorporates a land use index that varies spatially and temporally. Calibration and validation of both the hydrological and sediment models were satisfactory, with Kling-Gupta Efficiency coefficients varying between 0.51 and 0.73 and Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients varying between 0.61 and 0.73 respectively, indicating successful simulation of both variables in an agricultural context in spite of relatively short calibration and validation periods. Under the selected climate change scenario (RCP 8.5), daily flows and suspended sediment concentrations were simulated until 2,100, showing a slight increase in the average suspended sediment concentration (CSS). For Tuplin Creek, extremely high sediment peaks (>1,500 mg/L) could become significantly more frequent, potentially causing more frequent and severe ecosystem disturbances according to the simulations.