Pancancer outcome prediction via a unified weakly supervised deep learning model

Abstract Accurate prognosis prediction is essential for guiding cancer treatment and improving patient outcomes. While recent studies have demonstrated the potential of histopathological images in survival analysis, existing models are typically developed in a cancer-specific manner, lack extensive external validation, and often rely on molecular data that are not routinely available in clinical practice. To address these limitations, we present PROGPATH, a unified model capable of integrating histopathological image features with routinely collected clinical variables to achieve pancancer prognosis prediction. PROGPATH employs a weakly supervised deep learning architecture built upon the foundation model for image encoding. Morphological features are aggregated through an attention-guided multiple instance learning module and fused with clinical information via a cross-attention transformer. A router-based classification strategy further refines the prediction performance. PROGPATH was trained on 7999 whole-slide images (WSIs) from 6,670 patients across 15 cancer types, and extensively validated on 17 external cohorts with a total of 7374 WSIs from 4441 patients, covering 12 cancer types from 8 consortia and institutions across three continents. PROGPATH achieved consistently superior performance compared with state-of-the-art multimodal prognosis prediction models. It demonstrated strong generalizability across cancer types and robustness in stratified subgroups, including early- and advanced-stage patients, treatment cohorts (radiotherapy and pharmaceutical therapy), and biomarker-defined subsets. We further provide model interpretability by identifying pathological patterns critical to PROGPATH’s risk predictions, such as the degree of cell differentiation and extent of necrosis. Together, these results highlight the potential of PROGPATH to support pancancer outcome prediction and inform personalized cancer management strategies.