Drought vulnerability assessment of a climate sensitive GI crop using earth observation: the Korkuteli Karyağdı pear

IntroductionThis research aims to spatially determine the risk associated with climate change impacting the Geographical Indication (GI) registered Karyagdi Pear variety, which is grown in the Korkuteli district of the Antalya Province in Turkey, where the area in question contributes greatly to the country’s tourism and agricultural economy and was previously identified for its high biodiversity and microclimate variations. Besides being home to a valuable biological diversity, this area is where the GI product is grown. The increased drought stress imposed by global warming affects this region, which is threatened both by the biological environment and the economic viability of the production sector, as well as the sustainability of the GI status.MethodsIn the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform, data sets such as Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), ECMWF Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) Land Reanalysis data, and Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS) from the years 2001 to 2023 were analyzed to provide estimates for the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), Land Surface Temperature (LST), ambient temperature data, evapotranspiration (ET), soil moisture (SM), and precipitation anomaly. Data sets were then rescaled to a range between 0 and 1. In addition to the aforementioned data sets, other subindices created included the Vegetation Drought Index (VDI), the Hydro Thermal Index (HTI), and the Meteorological Drought Index (MDI). The Composite Drought Risk Index (CDRI) map was created through the assembly of the aforementioned elements.ResultsThe results of the study revealed that SM was low, surface temperature was high, and vegetation vitality was low. Bayat, Esenyurt, Kargin, Küçükköy, and Yazir neighborhoods were identified as high drought risk areas, while Asagipazar, Tatköy, and Karsiyaka districts were found to be low drought risk areas. The study’s findings indicate that GI crop production areas are at risk from drought. Unlike drought analyses that rely on a single indicator, this study employed a multiindex methodology that considers vegetation vitality, atmospheric changes, and hydrothermal dynamics together. This study is a pioneering work in establishing a drought risk index for GI crops using ground observation technology.