May the pro-poor impacts of trade liberalization vanish because of imperfect information?

Boussard , Jean-Marc
        INRA
         .
         UR 1217 Paysanneries, Territoires, Environnement, Marchés et politiques Publiques; Gérard , Françoise
        .; Piketty , Marie-Gabrielle
        .; Christensen , Ane-Katrine
        .; Voituriez , Tancrede
        .

May the pro-poor impacts of trade liberalization vanish because of imperfect information?

2004

Boussard , Jean-Marc (INRA (France). UR 1217 Paysanneries, Territoires, Environnement, Marchés et politiques Publiques) | Gérard , Françoise (Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement(France).) | Piketty , Marie-Gabrielle (Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement(France).) | Christensen , Ane-Katrine (Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement(France).) | Voituriez , Tancrede (Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement(France).)

In this paper, we try to evaluate changes in welfare gains and their distribution due to trade liberalization when imperfect information is considered. The results of two versions of a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, using the GTAP database and representing goods as well as capital flows, are compared. In the first version, a standard world CGE approach is followed. In the second version we include risk aversion, imperfect information and production lag in the agricultural sector. After a brief description of the two versions, changes in welfare, represented by the income of two types of household (middle-low and middle-high) in three regions (Europe, United States, Rest of the World) after agricultural trade liberalization are presented. Theoretical and political consequences of the results are discussed.

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