The challenge of unprecedented floods and droughts in risk management
2022
Kreibich, Heidi | van Loon, Anne | Schröter, Kai | Ward, Philip, J. | Mazzoleni, Maurizio | Sairam, Nivedita | Abeshu, Guta Wakbulcho | Agafonova, Svetlana | Aghakouchak, Amir | Aksoy, Hafzullah | Alvarez-Garreton, Camila | Aznar, Blanca | Balkhi, Laila | Barendrecht, Marlies, H. | Biancamaria, Sylvain | Bos-Burgering, Liduin | Bradley, Chris | Budiyono, Yus | Buytaert, Wouter | Capewell, Lucinda | Carlson, Hayley | Cavus, Yonca | Couasnon, Anaïs | Coxon, Gemma | Daliakopoulos, Ioannis | de Ruiter, Marleen, C. | Delus, Claire | Erfurt, Mathilde | Esposito, Giuseppe | François, Didier | Frappart, Frédéric | Freer, Jim | Frolova, Natalia | Gain, Animesh, K. | Grillakis, Manolis | Grima, Jordi Oriol | Guzmán, Diego, A. | Huning, Laurie, S. | Ionita, Monica | Kharlamov, Maxim | Khoi, Dao Nguyen | Kieboom, Natalie | Kireeva, Maria | Koutroulis, Aristeidis | Lavado-Casimiro, Waldo | Li, Hong-Yi | Llasat, María Carmen | Macdonald, David | Mård, Johanna | Mathew-Richards, Hannah | Mckenzie, Andrew | Mejia, Alfonso | Mendiondo, Eduardo Mario | Mens, Marjolein | Mobini, Shifteh | Mohor, Guilherme Samprogna | Nagavciuc, Viorica | Ngo-Duc, Thanh | Thao Nguyen Huynh, Thi | Nhi, Pham Thi Thao | Petrucci, Olga | Nguyen, Hong Quan | Quintana-Seguí, Pere | Razavi, Saman | Ridolfi, Elena | Riegel, Jannik | Sadik, Md Shibly | Savelli, Elisa | Sazonov, Alexey | Sharma, Sanjib | Sörensen, Johanna | Arguello Souza, Felipe Augusto | Stahl, Kerstin | Steinhausen, Max | Stoelzle, Michael | Szalińska, Wiwiana | Tang, Qiuhong | Tian, Fuqiang | Tokarczyk, Tamara | Tovar, Carolina | Tran, Thi van Thu | van Huijgevoort, Marjolein, H. J. | van Vliet, Michelle, T. H. | Vorogushyn, Sergiy | Wagener, Thorsten | Wang, Yueling | Wendt, Doris, E. | Wickham, Elliot | Yang, Long | Zambrano-Bigiarini, Mauricio | Blöschl, Günter | Di Baldassarre, Giuliano | German Research Centre for Geosciences - Helmholtz-Centre Potsdam (GFZ) | Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam [Amsterdam] (VU) | Technische Universität Braunschweig = Technical University of Braunschweig [Braunschweig] | University of Houston | Lomonosov Moscow State University = Université d'État Lomonossov de Moscou [Moscou] (MSU) | University of California (UC) | Istanbul Technical University (ITÜ) | Universidad de la frontera [Tecumo, Chile] = University of La Frontera [Tecumo, Chile] = Université de La Frontera [Tecumo, Chili] (UFRO) | Center for Climate and Resilience Research [Conception] ((CR)2) ; Universidad de Concepción = University of Concepción [Chile] (UdeC) | Operations Department, Barcelona Cicle de l’Aigua | University of Saskatchewan [Saskatoon, Canada] (U of S) | Laboratoire d'études en Géophysique et océanographie spatiales (LEGOS) ; Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) ; Communauté d'universités et établissements de Toulouse (Comue de Toulouse)-Communauté d'universités et établissements de Toulouse (Comue de Toulouse)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) | Department of Groundwater Management, Deltares, Delft | University of Birmingham [Birmingham] | Agency for the Assessment and Application of Technology | Imperial College London | Beykent University [Istanbul] | Albert-Ludwigs-Universität Freiburg = University of Freiburg | University of Bristol [Bristol] | Cabot Institute ; University of Bristol [Bristol] | Hellenic Mediterranean University | Centre de Recherche en Géographie (LOTERR) ; Université de Lorraine (UL) | Research Institute for Geo-hydrological Protection [Perugia] (IRPI) ; National Research Council of Italy | Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (CNR) | Interactions Sol Plante Atmosphère (UMR ISPA) ; Ecole Nationale Supérieure des Sciences Agronomiques de Bordeaux-Aquitaine (Bordeaux Sciences Agro)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE) | Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) | Università Iuav di Venezia = Iuav University of Venice (IUAV) | Foundation for Research and Technology - Hellas (FORTH) | Pontificia Bolivariana University, Faculty of Civil Engineering [Bucaramanga] | California State University [Long Beach] (CSULB) | Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung = Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research = Institut Alfred-Wegener pour la recherche polaire et marine (AWI) ; Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft = Helmholtz Association | Emil Racoviță Institute of Speleology (ERIS) ; Romanian Academy | University Stefan cel Mare of Suceava (USU) | Water Problems Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences ; Russian Academy of Sciences [Moscow] (RAS) | Ho Chi Minh City University of Science [Vietnam National University, HCM] (HCMUS) | ENVIRONMENT AGENCY BRISTOL GBR ; Partenaires IRSTEA ; Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA) | Technical University of Crete [Chania] (TUC) | Servicio Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología del Perú = Peruvian National Service of Meteorology and Hydrology (SENAMHI) | Universitat de Barcelona (UB) | British Geological Survey [Wallingford] ; British Geological Survey (BGS) | Centre of Natural Hazards and Disaster Science [Uppsala] | Uppsala University | Pennsylvania State University (Penn State) ; Penn State System | Escola de Engenharia de São Carlos (EESC-USP) ; Universidade de São Paulo = University of São Paulo (USP) | Deltares [The Netherlands] | Trelleborg municipality | Skane University Hospital [Lund] | Institute of Environmental Science and Geography [Potsdam] ; University of Potsdam = Universität Potsdam | Hanoi University of Science and Technology (HUST) | Vietnam National University, Ho Chi Minh City / Đại học Quốc gia TP. Hồ Chí Minh (VNU-HCM) | Faculty of Chemical Engineering [Vietnam National University, HCM] ; Ho Chi Minh City University of Technology [Vietnam National University, HCM] (HCMUT) ; Vietnam National University, Ho Chi Minh City / Đại học Quốc gia TP. Hồ Chí Minh (VNU-HCM)-Vietnam National University, Ho Chi Minh City / Đại học Quốc gia TP. Hồ Chí Minh (VNU-HCM) | OE OBSERVATORI DE L'EBRE RAMON LLULL UNIVERSITY ROQUETES ESP ; Partenaires IRSTEA ; Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA) | Università degli Studi di Roma "La Sapienza" = Sapienza University [Rome] (UNIROMA) | Otto-von-Guericke-Universität Magdeburg = Otto-von-Guericke University [Magdeburg] (OVGU) | Center for Environmental and Geographic Information Services (CEGIS) | Institute of Meteorology and Water Management - National Research Institute (IMGW - PIB) | Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China | Tsinghua University [Beijing] (THU) | Royal Botanical Gardens Kew [London] | KWR Watercycle Research Institute | Universiteit Utrecht / Utrecht University [Utrecht] | University of Potsdam = Universität Potsdam | University of Nebraska–Lincoln ; University of Nebraska System | Nanjing University (NJU) | Institute of Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources Management ; Vienna University of Technology = Technische Universität Wien (TU Wien) | Institute for Water Education (IHE Delft) | European Project: 01003276
International audience
Show more [+] Less [-]English. Risk management has reduced vulnerability to floods and droughts globally yet their impacts are still increasing. An improved understanding of the causes of changing impacts is therefore needed, but has been hampered by a lack of empirical data. On the basis of a global dataset of 45 pairs of events that occurred within the same area, we show that risk management generally reduces the impacts of floods and droughts but faces difficulties in reducing the impacts of unprecedented events of a magnitude not previously experienced. If the second event was much more hazardous than the first, its impact was almost always higher. This is because management was not designed to deal with such extreme events: for example, they exceeded the design levels of levees and reservoirs. In two success stories, the impact of the second, more hazardous, event was lower, as a result of improved risk management governance and high investment in integrated management. The observed difficulty of managing unprecedented events is alarming, given that more extreme hydrological events are projected owing to climate change.
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