Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates
2017
Zhao, Chuang | Liu, Bing | Piao, Shilong | Wang, Xuhui | Lobell, David B. | Huang, Yao | Huang, Mengtian | Yao, Yitong | Bassu, Simona | Ciais, Philippe | Durand, Jean-Louis | Elliott, Joshua | Ewert, Frank | Janssens, Ivan A. | Li, Tao | Lin, Erda | Liu, Qiang | Martres, Pierre | Müller, Christoph | Peng, Shushi | Penuelas, Josep | Ruane, Alex C. | Wallach, Daniel | Wang, Tao | Wu, Donghai | Liu, Zhuo | Zhu, Yan | Zhu, Zaichun | Asseng, Senthold | Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences ; Peking University [Beijing] | National Engineering and Technology Center for Information Agriculture ; Nanjing Agricutural University | Ministry of Agriculture, Key Laboratory for Crop System Analysis and Decision Making ; Nanjing Agricutural University | Jiangsu Key Laboratory for Information Agriculture ; Nanjing Agricutural University | Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Modern Crop Production ; Nanjing Agricutural University | Agricultural and Biological Engineering Department ; Purdue University [West Lafayette] | Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research ; Chinese Academy of Sciences [Beijing] (CAS) | Center for Excellence in Tibetan Earth Science ; Chinese Academy of Sciences [Changchun Branch] (CAS) | Department of Earth System Science Center on Food Security and the Environment ; Stanford University | State Key Laboratory of Vegetation and Environmental Change (LVEC) ; Institute of Botany [Beijing] (IB-CAS) ; Chinese Academy of Sciences [Beijing] (CAS)-Chinese Academy of Sciences [Beijing] (CAS) | Desertification Research Centre ; Università degli Studi di Sassari = University of Sassari [Sassari] (UNISS) | Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE) ; Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) ; Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA) | ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC) ; Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE) ; Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) ; Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) ; Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA) | Unité de Recherche Pluridisciplinaire Prairies et Plantes Fourragères (P3F) ; Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA) | University of Chicago Computation Institute ; University of Chicago | Center for Climate Systems Research [New York] (CCSR) ; Columbia University [New York] | Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation [Bonn] (INRES) ; Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn | Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung = Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF) | Department of Biology ; Northern Arizona University [Flagstaff] | International Rice Research Institute [Philippines] (IRRI) ; Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research [CGIAR] (CGIAR) | Agro-Environment and Sustainable Development Institute ; Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) | Écophysiologie des Plantes sous Stress environnementaux (LEPSE) ; Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro) | Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilities ; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) | Centre for Ecological Research and Applied Forestries = Centre de Recerca Ecologica i Aplicacions Forestals (CREAF) ; Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas [España] = Spanish National Research Council [Spain] (CSIC) | NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) ; NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) | AGroécologie, Innovations, teRritoires (AGIR) ; Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) (Toulouse INP) ; Communauté d'universités et établissements de Toulouse (Comue de Toulouse)-Communauté d'universités et établissements de Toulouse (Comue de Toulouse) | ANR-16-CONV-0003,CLAND,CLAND : Changement climatique et usage des terres(2016)
Wheat, rice, maize, and soybean provide two-thirds of human caloric intake. Assessing the impact of global temperature increase on production of these crops is therefore critical to maintaining global food supply, but different studies have yielded different results. Here, we investigated the impacts of temperature on yields of the four crops by compiling extensive published results from four analytical methods: global grid-based and local point-based models, statistical regressions, and field-warming experiments. Results from the different methods consistently showed negative temperature impacts on crop yield at the global scale, generally underpinned by similar impacts at country and site scales. Without CO2 fertilization, effective adaptation, and genetic improvement, each degree-Celsius increase in global mean temperature would, on average, reduce global yields of wheat by 6.0%, rice by 3.2%, maize by 7.4%, and soybean by 3.1%. Results are highly heterogeneous across crops and geographical areas, with some positive impact estimates. Multi-method analyses improved the confidence in assessments of future climate impacts on global major crops and suggest crop-and region-specific adaptation strategies to ensure food security for an increasing world population.
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