Climate and host plant availability are favourable to the establishment of Lycorma delicatula in Europe

Host plant datasets are available from the supplementary files associated with this article. L. delicatula occurrence datasets are available from the gbif database, the R package 'LydemapR' and the supplementary files associated with the article. Model projections, the corresponding committee averaging, and the MESS index for current and future climate conditions are available from the repository: https://doi.org/10.57745/U1YKUR.

International audience

English. 1. Lycorma delicatula , the spotted lanternfly, is a highly successful invasive phloem‐feeding planthopper native to southern China. It has invaded South Korea, Japan, and the United States, where it continues to expand geographically, but it remains absent from Europe. We investigated two key ecological factors influencing the risk of its establishment: climate suitability and the availability of compatible host plants.2. We developed an ensemble species distribution model using three algorithms to assess the potential geographic range of L. delicatula under current and future climate conditions. We reviewed the literature to evaluate its host repertoire and identified host species present in Europe.3. Current climate conditions are highly suitable for L. delicatula across much of Europe. Climate change is expected to only slightly alter climate suitability by 2060. Numerous known host plants are also widely distributed throughout Europe.4. We conclude that neither climate conditions nor the availability of compatible host plants pose a barrier to the establishment of L. delicatula in Europe. Both current and future climate suitability, along with the list of potential host species, can provide valuable guidance for surveillance efforts and enhance the preparedness of phytosanitary authorities.