Predicting technology adoption to improve research priority-setting
Batz, Franz-J. | Janssen, Willem | Peters, Kurt J.
This paper presents an improved approach for predicting the speed and ceiling of technology adoption, which is a crucialinformation for research priority setting. In the models it is assumed that both the speed and ceiling of adoption depend onthe perceived characteristics of technologies. Knowing the characteristics that have determined adoption in the past providesrelevant information about the characteristics which will enable new technologies to be quickly and widely adopted in thefuture. Using a case study from Meru District in Kenya, it is shown that relative investment, relative risk and relative complexitysignificantly influenced the speed and ceiling of adoption of dairy technologies in the past. These empirical results are usedto predict the speed and ceiling of adoption of potential new dairy technologies to be developed by the Dairy Cattle ResearchProgramme (DCRP) of the Kenya Agricultural Research Institute (KARl). The approach is theoretically sound and based onempirical evidence. It clearly distinguishes promising technologies from less promising technologies and is transparent toparticipants in priority setting exercises. Allowing for the participation of all interest groups within the research system, theapproach improves the quality of the assessment and hence the credibility of results.© 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.Show more [+] Less [-]