Modelling agricultural supply response in Vietnam using a GIS and positive mathematical programming
Brennan, Donna C.
The potential for supplementing sparse economic data and aggregate production datawith a detailed specification of land quality constraints obtained from a GeographicalInformation System, in order to parameterise a regional model of rice acreageresponse in Vietnam, is investigated in this paper. It is asserted that such an approachhas advantages in terms of improved credibility amongst agricultural scientists cumpolicy makers because of the detailed attention to land capability, compared toconventional elasticity based approaches that are commonly used for agriculturalpolicy analysis when data is scarce. The approach relies on the use of PositiveMathematical Programming to calibrate the acreage response for land classes wheremore than one farming system is observed in the baseline data. Sensitivity of themodel to the nature of the calibration assumptions are presented, and results regardingacreage response with respect to rice prices, in different seasons and regions arepresented and discussed.It is concluded that while the current model relies on some heroic assumptionsregarding interpretation of the available information, it could be improvedconsiderably, and at low cost, if taken up and developed within the Ministry. Thereremains, however, a research agenda regarding farm household decision making inrice based production systems of Vietnam that could provide for improved calibrationin the future.Show more [+] Less [-]