A Statistical Approach for Spatial Disaggregation of Crop Production in the EU
2017
Kempen, Markus | Heckelei, Thomas | Britz, Wolfgang | Adrian, Leip | Koeble, Renate
In this paper we describe a procedure for disaggregating agricultural land use choices at NUTS2 level to about 18.000 homogeneous spatial units completely covering the usable agriculturalarea of the EU. The disaggregation procedure uses 40.000 sampling points and aggregate datafrom administrative regions and requires two steps: First, we employ crop specific, spatial binarychoice models to regress land use decisions on local natural conditions (soil, relief, climate)based on the sample information. Results allow predicting crop shares in each spatialunit. Second, consistency with data from administrative regions is achieved by maximising theposterior density of crop shares subject to aggregating equations using the forecast distributionsas prior information. Comparison with actual crop shares shows the validity of the procedure.
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