Using Linear Programming to Achieve the Optimum Cropping Pattern in Hama Governorate

The research was conducted in Hama Governorate, second stability zone, during agricultural season (2017/2018), based on primary data for a random sample of 400 farmers, and secondary data for the time series (2004-2018). Aimed to reach optimal cropping pattern (winter and summer), which maximizes total Agricultural production value, or farmers’ net profit, or Minimizes water use in agriculture, or production costs, and comparison the results with the prevailing cropping pattern during agricultural seasons during period (2016-2018) using Operations Research methodology, Linear Programming manner, Simplex method. The research also aimed to study Supply Response for crops of summer and winter cropping pattern at research area level, to know the expected time to reach the areas of the optimal cropping pattern recommended by the results of linear programming, based on the speed of the annual adjustment of each crop, and to suggest appropriate agricultural procedures and policies to reach the optimal areas .The results showed that the best resulting optimal cropping patterns , which use the available natural resources in Hama Governorate, especially water; Within the annual renewal rates, consistent with and contributing to achievement of national goals by securing the population’s main needs of various commodities and agricultural products, without conflicting with the farmers’ goals of achieving largest possible profit margin from their agricultural activities, which is the cropping pattern (summer and winter) that maximizes agricultural production value .Based on the results of linear programming; The optimal winter cropping pattern that maximizes the total value of production in research area, achieves the maximum possible total value of production of approximately (90,593) million Syrian pounds, by cultivating available entire winter area in research area with crops of wheat, barley, chickpeas, cumin, anise, golden winter onions, Spring potatoes, garlic, and beans, with areas respectively: (572,020), (638,260), (39,110), (54,600), (44,330), (11,340), (36,740), (4,610), (8,780) dunum, That means, the cultivation of all winter crops should be expanded: wheat, cumin, fava beans, barley, golden winter onions, chickpeas, aniseed, garlic, and spring potatoes, with rates reaching, respectively, (187%), (140%), (118%) and (73%). , (67%), (62%), (55%), (45%), (41%) of their average prevailing areas during the period (2016, 2018). In comparison with prevailing winter cropping pattern in research area, it was found that the optimal winter cropping pattern which maximizes total production value, achieved an increase in the total production value of winter cropping pattern by (109.76%) compared to total production value of prevailing winter cropping pattern during period (2016-2018), in addition to an increase in the net profit for farmers by (109.82%) compared to the net profit of the prevailing cropping pattern, on other hand, the optimal cropping pattern uses larger quantities of standard water by (146.59%) and its production cost is greater by (109.69%) than the cost of prevailing cropping pattern .The linear programming results also showed; that optimal summer cropping pattern that maximizes the total value of production in research area, achieves the maximum possible total value of production of approximately (13,205) million Syrian pounds, by cultivating only (40.73%) of available summer area in the research area with following crops: Autumn potatoes, Cucumbers, Red melons, Molokhia, Okra, Peanuts, Capsicum, Aubergine, Tomatoes, Dry Red Onions, and Yellow Corn, with areas respectively (31,180), (6,940),(6,070), (1,810), (1,580), (6,390), (2,730) ), (3,260), (9,385), (3,170), and (5,470) dunum, Which means that the areas for: Molokhia, Aubergine, Capsicum, Peanuts, Red Watermelon, Yellow Corn, Dry Red Onions, Cucumbers, and Okra must be reduced by a rates reaching respectively: (87%), (57%), (56%), (41%), (36%), (35%), (26%), (26%), (16%) than their average areas in prevailing cropping pattern during the period (2016, 2018), and exclusion all areas of Yellow Watermelon, in favor of increasing areas for the largest total production value crops which are: Autumn Potatoes by (100%) and (33%) for Tomato areas over their average area in the prevailing summer cropping pattern during the period (2016, 2018). In comparison with prevailing summer cropping pattern in the research area, it was found that the optimal summer cropping pattern which maximizes total production value, achieving an increase in total production value by (18.57%) compared to total value of prevailing cropping pattern, and an increase in farmers' net profit by (39.87%) compared to achieved profit from prevailing one, as well as achieving a savings in standard water quantities by (14.61%) compared to the standard water quantities of prevailing summer cropping pattern, and an increase of (8.32%) in production costs over the costs of the prevailing one .The results of supply response study for cropping pattern (winter and summer) crops during the period (2004-2018) showed that summer crops were Faster modification than winter crops in Hama Governorate, where annual response speed coefficients for their crops reached greater values compared to winter ones, where the high production cost of summer crops compared to winter, and therefore the farmers' decision to plant summer crops is riskier and more accurate .As it turns out; The difference in summer and winter crops in their annual adjustment's speed in research area, due to effect of a set of independent factors, in addition to difference in the size of that effect according to crop, its nature and its economic properties, as these crops differ in terms of their location within group of planned crops “such as Wheat” or unplanned on one hand; In addition to the difference in possibility of planting it more than one time during same season on the other hand, and difference in farmers' experience in cultivating certain crops within the collection of studied crops; also has an effect on the annual response rate to change for each crop by farmers in Hama Governorate .