Study the impact of urbanization on agricultural land in Hama governorate

This research was carried out in Hama governorate, with the aim of studying the impact of urban expansion on agricultural lands in the governorate, where information and data related to the issue of urban expansion were collected, during a time series extending to thirty years during the period 1988-2017. These data include the area of arable land and the area of uncultivable land. The focus during this period was on the area of actually cultivated lands in the governorate and its impact on urban expansion, with a decrease of 20,853 hectares, with a decrease of 6.9%, most of which turned into abandoned buildings and lands (slumber). Therefore, the discussion of this matter, and the impact of this on the national economy, was discussed, assuming that this area was invested in the cultivation of crops and fruitful trees spread in the governorate (wheat, barley, olives, pistachios) instead of these concrete blocks that spread on this area The vast areas that came out of the investment, would have given an important economic return, and helped achieve self-sufficiency for farmers’ families in the crops and fruitful trees they planted, and selling the surplus, thus increasing their incomes and improving their standard of living. The loss resulting from not investing agricultural land in the study area, as a result of urban expansion on it, amounts to about 44.717 billion Syrian pounds, if it was planted with the four main crops(Wheat, barley, olives and pistachios). But if all the area is invested by cultivating it with wheat, this loss will amount to 8 million and 321 thousand SP. In the event that the cultivation of barley crop, the loss amounts to about 5 billion and 663 million SP. In the event that this area is planted with olives, the loss will reach about 22 billion and 600 million SP. In the case of cultivating the previous area with pistachios, the loss would reach about 328 billion SP. ARIMA models were also built corresponding to each time series of the series (actually invested and cultivated), and there was instability in the space between increase and decrease, due to the strategy of the Ministry of Agriculture for development, and the restoration of some lands in case of increase on the one hand, and because of the encroachments by the population, or On the other hand, the presence of lands under the control of the militants in the event of a decline. When linking the population numbers with mathematical models with the area of arable land, there was an increase in the number of the population by 7.74%, and the area of the invested lands by 1.32%, with a decrease in the area of uninvested lands by 23.9%, this decrease with the slight increase in the invested area gives an indication that the Residents occupy this space.