Africa 2100: how to feed Nigeria in 2100 with 800 million inhabitants
2021
Olowe, Victor
Land is the most important natural resource critical to agriculture in Africa. Out of 54 countries in Africa, Nigeria is the most populous (> 190 million) and the seventh largest in the world in 2017 with an annual population growth rate of 2.7%. Nigeria is the largest oil producer in Africa and the revenue from oil is not properly channeled towards the development of the nation’s agriculture and non-oil sectors. Oil exploration comes with its attendant problems. Consequently, the country drifted into the status of lower-middle-income status in 2014 far behind other oil-exporting countries with about 110 million (57%) of the population living below the poverty line. About 36.4% of the population is experiencing moderate-severe food insecurity. The population of the country had been predicted to reach 800 million in 2100 with the implication that there will be more demand for food to be produced on limited crop land (Rahmann et al. Org Agric 10:9–21, 2019). The projected land area to be available per person for farming in 2100 under medium assumption is only 504 m² as against 2,100 m² in 2019. In a bid to start addressing the impending food crisis, this paper discusses Nigeria’s population dynamics, available land per person to produce food, vegetables and fruits, and strategies to attain sustainable food and nutrition security in 2100.
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