Living high and at risk: predicting Andean bear occurrence and conflicts with humans in southeastern Peru

Human encroachment into wildlife habitat threatens the persistence of large carnivore populations because it shrinks their distribution and promotes conflicts related to agricultural and livestock damage. Andean bears (Tremarctos ornatus) have experienced one of the greatest range contractions among large carnivores. Habitat loss and damages to crops and livestock are among the main threats to the conservation of the species. Here, we analyzed the occurrence of the Andean bear and the risk of conflict with humans at different spatial scales in southeastern Peru using Generalized Linear Models. First, we modeled the species distribution at two spatial scales (4 × 4 km and 1 × 1 km) and then, the risk of conflict within the predicted bear occurrence at the fine scale (1 × 1 km), taking damage records as a proxy of conflicts. The species distribution models at both scales identified altitude as the most important predictor of bear presence, with high altitudinal habitats having the highest probability of bear occurrence. Steep slopes (at coarse scale) and areas close to forest (at fine scale) were also associated with high probability of bear occurrence. The predicted occurrence spanned mostly grasslands and montane forests. The conflict risk model indicated a high probability of bear damage associated with places far from forest patches and with low vegetation cover, where bears can encounter unprotected livestock and crops. The spatial projection of our models showed that only 43% of the predicted bear occurrence had some level of legal protection and 45% is under human-bear conflict risk, including parts of the protected areas. Moreover, our models suggested that the potential distribution of Andean bears in the area has contracted around 50% in relation to the historical range. We encourage local and national authorities and policymakers to enlarge protected areas to reduce the impact of human activities on Andean bear occurrence and to improve the management of human-bear conflicts. This is of special importance under climate change, which will increase the vulnerability of high altitude habitats, crucial for Andean bears, to land-use changes.