Landscape Greening Policies-based Land Use/Land Cover Simulation for Beijing and Islamabad—An Implication of Sustainable Urban Ecosystems
2018
Naeem, Shahid | Cao, Chunxiang | Fatima, Khunsa | Najmuddin, Omaid | Acharya, Bipin
City green infrastructure (CGI) makes cities more resilient and sustainable, as required by the United Nations’ (UN) Sustainable Development Goal 11–Sustainable Cities and Communities. Based on the CGI policies of Beijing, land use/land cover (LULC) changes of two Asian capitals, Beijing, China and Islamabad, Pakistan, are simulated. LULC maps for 2010 and 2015 are developed by applying object-based image analysis (OBIA) to Landsat imagery. Dynamics of land system (DLS) model was used to simulate the LULC changes for 2020 and 2025 under three scenarios: (1) business-as-usual (BAU); (2) urban green space work plan (UGWP); and (3) landscape and greening policies (LGP). Results reveal that DLS is efficient than other simulation models. The BAU scenario predicts an overall expansion in Beijing’s greenery, while Islamabad will encounter a decline by 7.3 km2 per year. Under the UGWP scenario, urban green spaces and other vegetation area of Beijing will expand by 7.6 km2, while, for Islamabad, vegetation degradation rate will slow down to 6.9 km2 per year. The LGP scenario envisage a massive increase of 23.5 km2 per year in green resources of Beijing and Islamabad’s green land loss rate will further slowdown to 6.1 km2 per year. It is inferred from the results that vegetation degradation in Islamabad need to lessen by implementing LGP policy after basic amendments according to the local conditions and available resources.
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