Spatio-temporal Dynamic Simulation of Land use and Ecological Risk in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration, China

Rapid urbanization leads to dramatic changes in land use patterns, and the land use/cover change (LUCC) can reflect the spatial impact of urbanization on the ecological environment. Simulating the process of LUCC and predicting the ecological risk future changes can provide supports for urban ecological management. Taking the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration (YRDUA), China as the study area, four developmental scenarios were set on the basis of the land use data from 2005 to 2015. The temporal land use changes were predicted by the integration of the system dynamic and the future land use simulation (SD-FLUS) model, and the geographically weighted regression (GWR) model was used to identify the spatial heterogeneity and evolution characteristics between ecological risk index (ERI) and socio-economic driving forces. Results showed that: 1) From 2005 to 2015, the expansion of construction land (7670.24 km²) mainly came from the occupation of cultivated land (7854.22 km²). The Kappa coefficient of the SD-FLUS model was 0.886, indicating that this model could be used to predict the future land use changes in the YRDUA. 2) Gross domestic production (GDP) and population density (POP) showed a positive effect on the ERI, and the impact of POP exceeded that of GDP. The ERI showed the characteristics of zonal diffusion and a slight upward trend, and the high ecological risk region increased by 6.09%, with the largest increase. 3) Under different developmental scenarios, the land use and ecological risk patterns varied. The construction land is increased by 5.76%, 7.41%, 5.25% and 6.06%, respectively. And the high ecological risk region accounted for 12.71%, 15.06%, 11.89%, and 12.94%, correspondingly. In Scenario D, the structure of land use and ecological risk pattern was better compared with other scenarios considering the needs of rapid economic and ecological protection. This study is helpful to understand the spatio-temporal pattern and demand of land use types, grasp the ecological security pattern of large-scale areas, and provide scientific basis for the territory development of urban agglomeration in the future.