Network structures, environmental technology and contagion
2021
Billard, Côme
Diffusion of low-carbon technologies is critical to global decarbonization efforts aimed at achieving the Paris Agreement climate goals. In this paper, we represent a social system as a network of agents and model the process of technology diffusion as a contagion propagating in such a network. By setting the necessary conditions for an agent to switch (i.e. to adopt the technology), we address the question of how to maximize the contagion of a technology subject to learning effects (e.g. solar PV) in a network of agents. We focus the analysis on the influence of the network structure and technological learning on diffusion. Our numerical results show that clusters of agents are critical in the process of technology contagion although they generate high levels of variance in aggregate diffusion. Whatever the network structure, learning effects ease the technology contagion in social networks. Key policy insights: Policy makers should take advantage of, or favour, clustered organizations to deploy renewables (e.g. cooperatives of farmers, online social networks) Social dimensions are critical in the design of environmental policies (e.g. peer effects) Technologies subject to learning effects spread further in the population When considering social connections, policy makers should design policies to cope with uncertainty in diffusion (clustered organizations exhibit high levels of uncertainty in adoption).
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