Revisiting the Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement phosphorus targets and predicting the trophic status of Lake Michigan
2011
Pauer, James J. | Anstead, Amy M. | Melendez, Wilson | Taunt, Katherine W. | Kreis, Russell G., Jr
LM3-Eutro is a high-resolution eutrophication model with several improved features lacking in historical Great Lakes models. We calibrated LM3-Eutro using a 2-year (1994–1995) dataset and performed a hindcast simulation from 1976 to 1995 to evaluate the model's ability to make predictions over an extended period of time. Results show a reasonable agreement between model output and field data over this time period. The model predicted that an annual loading of 5600metric tons (MT) would result in a lake-wide annual total phosphorus (TP) concentration of 7.5μg L⁻¹. Using best estimates of future TP loadings, LM3-Eutro forecasts suggest that Lake Michigan will remain oligotrophic and will continue to meet the 7μg L⁻¹ spring TP concentration Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement objective.
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