A systems approach to quantify greenhouse gas fluxes from pastoral dairy production as affected by management regime

A model was developed to determine what effect management practices would have on the production of the greenhouse gases (GHG) within pastorally based dairy production systems typical of those practiced in Ireland. The model simulates two levels of GHG emissions, firstly the on-farm GHG emissions of methane, nitrous oxide and carbon dioxide for example from the pastorally spreading of slurry and secondly, off-farm GHG emissions associated with both inputs brought onto the farm to maintain productivity (for example emissions arising from manufacture of concentrate feeds and fertiliser) as well as from indirect GHG emissions associated with nitrate leaching and ammonia. The aim of this work was to allow the development of effective GHG mitigation strategies at the farm level capable of reducing GHG emissions per litre of milk. Greenhouse gas emissions were modelled for nine farming systems differing in the level of concentrate supplementation (376, 810 and 1540 kg per cow per lactation) and genotype for milk production as assessed by their pedigree index (<100, 100-200 and 200-300 kg) of milk production. A three-year study to evaluate the influence of cow genetic potential for milk production and concentrate supplementation level on profitability of pasture-based systems of milk production was used to drive the Moorepark Dairy Systems Model (MDSM). Output from this model then described farm size, feed budgets, animal numbers and farm profitability when annual milk quota was set to 468,000 kg of milk year. Relating GHG emissions to annual milk sales revealed that for these pastorally based systems increasing concentrate usage reduced both on-farm and off-farm emissions, but that increasing the genotype of the dairy cow (i.e., the genetic capacity of the animal to produce milk) will increase both on-farm and off-farm GHG emissions. Lowest GHG emissions per kilogram of milk were achieved for an intermediate genotype type cow fed within a high concentrate system whilst the highest emissions were associated with high genotype cows fed within a low concentrate system. Maximum profitability was obtained when either a high concentrate feeding regime was combined with high genotype cows or where low concentrate systems were fed to low genotype cows. Relating farm profitability to GHG emissions allowed the identification of scenarios where changing from one management systems to another would achieve a simultaneous reduction in GHG emissions whilst improving farm profitability. By implementing this approach of assessing management induced change on both GHG emissions arising from the farm together with farm profitability, individual whole farm GHG mitigation strategies could be developed with a high degree of acceptability to the producer.