Pre‐dispersal seed predation could help explain premature fruit drop in a tropical forest

Pre‐dispersal seed mortality caused by premature fruit drop is a potentially important source of plant mortality, but one which has rarely been studied in the context of tropical forest plants. Of particular interest is premature fruit drop triggered by enemies, which—if density dependent—could contribute to species coexistence in tropical forest plant communities. We used a long‐term (31 year) dataset on seed and fruit fall obtained through weekly collections from a network of seed traps in a lowland tropical forest (Barro Colorado Island, Panama) to estimate the proportion of seeds prematurely abscised for 201 woody plant species. To determine whether enemy attack might contribute to premature fruit drop, we tested whether plant species abscise more of their fruit prematurely if they (a) have attributes hypothesised to be associated with high levels of enemy attack and (b) are known to be attacked by one enemy group (insect seed predators). We also tested (c) whether mean rates of premature fruit drop for plant species are phylogenetically conserved. Overall rates of premature fruit drop were high in the plant community. Across all species, 39% of seeds were abscised before completing their development. Rates of premature seed abscission varied considerably among species and could not be explained by phylogeny. Premature seed abscission rates were higher in species which are known to host pre‐dispersal insect seed predators and species with attributes that were hypothesised to make them more susceptible to attack by pre‐dispersal enemies, namely species which (a) have larger seeds, (b) have a greater average height, (c) have temporally predictable fruiting patterns and (d) are more abundant at the study site. Synthesis. Premature fruit drop is likely to be a major source of seed mortality for many plant species on Barro Colorado Island. It is plausible that pre‐dispersal seed enemies, such as insect seed predators, contribute to community‐level patterns of premature fruit drop and have the potential to mediate species coexistence through stabilising negative density dependence. Our study suggests that the role of pre‐dispersal enemies in structuring tropical plant communities should be considered alongside the more commonly studied post‐dispersal seed and seedling enemies.