Prediction method for anthesis of Japanese pears [Pyrus pyrifolia] based on weather habit reactions
2007
Oya, Y.(Tochigi-ken. Agricultural Experiment Station, Utsunomiya (Japan))
Recently, unusual weather has significantly affected the growth of Japanese pears; the anthesis and harvest time of pears varied markedly year by year. The purpose of the study was to obtain the stable production. The program was developed, which can precisely predict the anthesis of Japanese pear 'Kousui', 'Housui' and 'Nikkori' in Tochigi prefecture even under unusual weather conditions. The anthesis was predicted using the following equations; DVIsub(1)=SigmaDVRsub(1), DVIsub(2)=SigmaDVRsub(2) Where DVIsub(1) and DVIsub(2) were the developmental indexes of mixed bud during the innate and imposed dormancy period, respectively, and DVRsub(1) and DVRsub(2) were the developmental rates of mixed bud during the innate and imposed dormancy period, respectively; each rates were dependent on air temperature. Substituting actual value of air temperature into the equations led to extremely small errors of 1.1 days in the beginning of anthesis of 'Kousui' for the last 20 years. Indeed, the anthesis was correctly predicted from the early development stage using expected air temperature based on a long-term forecast. The prediction program is useful throughout the whole Tochigi prefecture by calculating the anthesis at ten monitoring sites where are located across the whole prefecture.
Show more [+] Less [-]AGROVOC Keywords
Bibliographic information
This bibliographic record has been provided by The Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Research Information Technology Center
