Building with Nature: a future proof strategy for coping with a changing and uncertain world : Working with uncertainties

The influence of climate change on water related management challenges is felt worldwide. Backed by policies such as the European Green Deal, the UN Sustainable Development Goals and the Paris Agreement, there is a growing focus on Nature-based Solutions (NBS) and Building with Nature (BwN) to tackle current global challenges. However, the choice to implement Building with Nature rather than a traditional ‘grey’ infrastructure solution is often hampered by greater perceived uncertainty in the performance and implementation of Building with Nature. At the same time, the co-benefits of Building with Nature are well documented, and an increasing body of evidence showcases the value and functioning of Building with Nature under both daily and extreme conditions.The objective of this whitepaper is to inform practitioners of Building with Nature about the concepts of uncertainty and how to use this as a strength in the dialogue to come to sustainable solutions for coping with future global change related uncertainties. Sources of uncertainty related to the BwN solution are often more manageable than the sources of uncertainties related to predictions of the future state of the problem. For instance, uncertainties related to the question ‘how much sea-level rise can be expected’ needs to be addressed independent of the uncertainties related to the solution itself (e.g., how can a mangrove greenbelt adapt to sea-level rise of 50 cm). Key considerations for working with uncertainties in Building with Nature solutions are:1. Identification of all dimensions of uncertainty both related to the problem and solution at hand.2. Adaptivity is key to work with deeply uncertain future challenges.3. A toolkit of six enablers aids in implementing Building with Nature.4. Adaptive design and targeted monitoring are essential in the management of Building with Nature solutions.Based on a.o. the Ecoshape Building with Nature experience from over 12 years of ‘learning by doing’ at landscape scales for water management challenges, this white-paper argues that Building with Nature provides low-regret measures that can be both robust and flexible, and therefore suit adaptive planning strategies under uncertain futures. This in contrast to traditional grey solutions that generally seem cost-effective against their design time-horizons (e.g. 20 years), yet often remain in place long beyond these time frames, permanently altering the system in ways that reduce resilience and lead to considerable “regret” in terms of wasted investment and limited future adaptation possibilities. The key planning characteristic to manage uncertainty of future water management challenges is adaptivity. Building with Nature is particularly well-suited to confront these new challenges due to the flexibility of the application. The aim should not be to eliminate or minimise dynamics and uncertainty, but rather to formulate plans that ensure system performance under different conditions. Adaptive planning and management approaches help to formulate such flexible and robust strategies and should consider long-term functioning and exogenous impacts on the system. Here, adaptation pathways can be used to identify path and scenario dependencies, and show risks of lock-ins and situations of high and low ‘regret’. Uncertainties in design and implementation of Building with Nature can be managed by using the six EcoShape Enablers as a toolkit. These enablers are based on the experience of pilot projects worldwide and provide guidance on how to frame uncertainties related to the physical system understanding, the stakeholder communities involved, the institutional settings, the business case and the management, maintenance and monitoring of Building with Nature solutions. Over-dimensioning, diversification and modularity are design principles that can be employed to ensure that a solution can cope with changing circumstances. After implementation, the dynamic and adaptive character of Building with Nature allows for flexible management. For this an adaptive monitoring and maintenance framework should be set in place. This iterative monitoring and maintenance cycle includes targeted monitoring followed by the enaction of maintenance actions according to a predefined management framework, the formulation of which is an integral part of the planning process. Given all uncertainties, there can be a desire to ignore uncertainties and to hold on to familiar predict-and-plan practices. However, identifying and managing uncertainties using Building with Nature is the most sustainable, resilient and future proof approach in the long run.