[Analysis and prospects of food product demand in Tunisia. A dynamic approach] | Analisis y perspectivas de la demanda de productos alimenticios en Tunez. Un enfoque dinamico
1998
Dhehibi, B.
In order to describe the evolution of food consumption and structure in Tunisia, different dynamic versions of models are presented: the AIDS (Almost Ideal Demand System) and GADS (Generalised Addilog Demand System) models with time series data from 1973 to 1994. Results provide the estimated parameters for prices and total expenditure. From the analysis of expenditure elasticities with respect to total expenditure and of price we can conclude: 1) all food product groups can be classified as normal and first necessity, except for meat, fish, milk products and fruits that can be classified as luxury goods; 2) demand for all groups is inelastic and 3) the following groups can be classified as substitutes: meat, fish and milk products. Special attention has been paid to meat and fish products demand - analyzed in a same sub system - due to their importance in total expenditure for food products. Last, and combining several scenarios for income, price and population evolution, the model obtained is used to generate food demand predictions for Tunisia up to the year 2011.
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