Reliability of the Agro-climatic Atlases Based on the 30-Year Average Climate Data
2017
Kim, J.H., Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea | Kim, D.J., Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea | Kim, S.O., Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
The agroclimatic indices are produced by statistical analysis based on primary climate data (e.g., temperature, precipitation, and solar irradiance) or driving agronomic models. This study was carried out to evaluate how selection of daily temperature for a climate normal (1983-2012) affected the precision of the agroclimatic indices. As a first step, averaged daily 0600 and 1500 LST temperature for a climate normal were produced by geospatial schemes based on topo-climatology (365 days x 1 set, EST normal year). For comparison, 30 years daily temperature data were generated by applying the same process (365 days x 30 sets), and calculated mean of daily temperature (OBS normal year). The flowering date of apple 'Fuji' cultivar, the last frost date, and the risk of late frost were estimated based on EST normal year data and compared with the results from OBS normal year. The results on flowering date showed 2.9 days of error on average. The last frost date was of 11.4 days of error on average, which was relatively large. Additionally, the risk of the late frost was determined by the difference between the flowering and the last frost date. When it was determined based on the temperature of EST normal year, Akyang was classified as a risk area because the results showed that the last frost date would be the same or later than the flowering date in the 12.5% of area. However, the temperature of OBS normal year indicated that the area did not have the risk of a late frost. The results of this study implied that it would be necessary to reduce the error by replacing the EST method with the OBS method in the future.
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