Conceptual modeling of investment risk in heavy metal contamination of agricultural land soils in Ryazan region [Russian Federation]
2019
Mazhayskiy, Yu., All-Russian Research Inst. of Hydrotechnics and Melioration named after A.N. Kostyakova, Moscow (Russian Federation)) | Davydova, I., Ryazan State Univ. named after S.A. Yesenin (Russian Federation)
The main cause of polyelement pollution of farm lands is related to the long-distance transport of pollutants from sources of heavy metal emissions into the atmosphere. There are different conditions for polyelement contamination of land in the differentiated wind field of the Ryazan region. This depends on the intensity and direction of the air-technogenic flow of pollutants. Therefore, it is possible to establish the risk categories of polyelement contamination of agricultural land. Basically, the land farms of the Ryazan region can be classified as a high risk of polyelement pollution priority pollutants – zinc, lead, copper. Soil genetic features of chernozems, gray forest soils, sod-podzolic soils, alluvial soils do not affect the risk of polyelement contamination, which is more dependent on the wind flow of pollutants. Agricultural land is contaminated with cadmium, which should also be taken into account to assess the risk. It is possible to use the methodology of “applied information economy” for creating a conceptual model of accounting for the risk of multi-element contamination of agricultural land. This allows to quantify non-economic factors in the presence of risks and uncertainties. The following non-economic risk factors were identified: 1 – changes in the content of priority pollutants in soils, such as zinc, copper, lead; 2 – changes in the content of accompanying pollutants in soils, for example, cadmium; 3 – changes in the quality of land due to pollution; 4 – changes in the soil quality due to pollution. Under the influence of these environmental factors there is a loss of land value. Further, the Fermi method and the Monte Carlo method should be used in analytical modelling of investment risk due to contamination of agricultural land with heavy metals. After a set of sufficient statistics probabilistic distribution for the indicator of land value, which allows to establish the most likely change in the value of the land with polyelement soil pollution, is calculated.
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