Uncertainty analysis onto models and emission scenarios of climate change for projection of the temperature, precipitation, and evapotranspiration in the Neyshabour area
2018
Yaghoobzadeh, Mostafa | Amirabadizadeh, Mehdi | Seyyed Kaboli, Hesam
Climate change is not only caused the rise in temperature but also changes in the global precipitation cycle, which leads to variation in spatial and temporal precipitation patterns. In this study, climate change impacts were investigated on temperature, precipitation, and evapotranspiration of Neyshabour plane with the uncertainty of AOGCM models and emissions scenarios in the future period (2080-2099). First, the minimum and maximum temperature and precipitation for ten models of AOGCM under scenarios A2 and B1 in the future period and the baseline period of 1992-2011 were prepared and then downscaled by using of LARS_WG model. The reference evapotranspiration was calculated by FAO-Penman-Monteith method for all models and emission scenarios. The result showed that the value of evapotranspiration and temperature during the warm months were increased and the value of precipitation was decreased during the cold months. Also, monthly uncertainty was investigated for minimum and maximum temperature, precipitation, and evapotranspiration. The temperature and evapotranspiration in the warm months and precipitation in the cold months have less uncertainty than the other months. Also, the results of uncertainty analysis for models and emission scenarios are showed that NCARPCM and HADCM3 models in the estimation of minimum and maximum temperature, CGCM3T47as well as GFDLCM2 models in the estimation of precipitation have the best uncertainty results based on the two scenarios, respectively. The uncertainty analysis of AOGCM models determined that the best of uncertainty in the estimation of reference evapotranspiration for two scenarios is observed in the result of GISS-ER model. Also, the A2 scenario has the better function than the B1 scenario in the estimation of evapotranspiration parameter.
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