Predicting the geographical distribution of Alopecurus textilis Boiss rangeland species on basis Consensus approach of climate change in Mazandaran province
2022
samaneh nazari | zeinab jafarian | jalil alavi | ali asghar naghipoor
The climate changes have an important role in distribution of plant species. Statistical species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to predict the changes in species distribution under climate change scenarios. In the peresent study, the distribution of Alopecurus textilis in the current and future climate condition (2050) under the influence of climate change and two scenarios of RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 with the GCM data series of general circulation models BCC-CSM1-1، CCSM4 and MRI-CGCM3 by using of Five species distribution models such as Generalized Linear Model, Generalized Additive Model, Classification Tree Analyses, Generalized Boosting Model and Random Forest method in Mazandaran province were investigated. For this purpose, the number of 92 species presence data was recorded using Global Positioning System and along with layers of environmental factors including six bioclimatic variables and two physiographic variables were used in modeling. Among the environmental variables, mean temperature of driest quarter, precipitation seasonality, precipitation of warmest quarter and precipitation of coldest quarter had the most impact on the habitat suitability. Modeling evaluation indicated that the random forest and generalized boosting model had better predictions of climatic habitat than other models. Results showed that in comparison with current conditions under the emission scenarios of RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 respectively 22.25 and 36.22 percent of the climatic suitable area for this species will be reduced by 2050. Finally, the results of the present study can be an efficient tool for biodiversity protection, ecosystem management, and species re-habitation planning under future climate change scenarios.
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