Analysing determinants of housing tenure A cross sectional analysis in the City of Tshwane Metropolitan

Thesis (MA)--Stellenbosch University

ENGLISH ABSTRACT: According to the census 2011 tenure is, divided into five categories: “Owned but not yet paid off”, “Owned and fully paid off”, “rented”,“occupied and rent free” and “tenure other”. The integral focus of the study is on owned tenure sourced with other related variables from the 2011 census data. Thus the purpose of the study was to explore spatially the critical factors that influence the distribution of owned tenure in the Tshwane Metropolitan Municipality, in order to model households’ housing career and locational mobility by household head (HH) age and population group in different income areas. The study applied a bivariate correlation, geographic weighted regression analysis in order to ascertain stages in which households attained owned tenure in relation to socio-demographic and economic variables. Ordinary Least Square (OLS) modelled spatially the varying relationships and determined homogenous groupings in terms of their randomness, the results of the study revealed that the hypothesis was true with the findings that “Owned, but not fully paid off” tenure was in large proportion at “HH age group 35 –49”. However, such tenure was also larger for the white population group at “HH age group 20 –34” compared to other groups. Unfortunately, “Owned and fully paid off” tenure contradicted the hypothesis on the basis that it was dominant and larger at HH age groups above 50. Moreover, both types of ownership were highly clustered in specific areas within the study area.

AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Volgens die sensus 2011 is die ampstermyn verdeel in vyf kategorieë: "Besit, maar nog nie afbetaal nie", "Eienaar en ten volle afbetaal", "gehuur", "bewoon en huurvry" en "ander amptenaar". Die integrale fokus van die studie is op besit verkry met ander verwante veranderlikes uit die 2011 sensus data. Die doel van die studie was dus om die kritiese faktore wat die verspreiding van besitreg in die Tshwane Metropolitaanse Munisipaliteit beïnvloed, ruimtelik te ondersoek ten einde huishoudings se behuisingsloopbaan en lokasie mobiliteit deur huishoudelike hoof (HH) ouderdom en bevolkingsgroep in verskillende inkomste te modelleer. Die studie het 'n bivariate korrelasie, geografiese geweegde regressie-analise toegepas om stadiums te bepaal waarin huishoudings besit verkry het ten opsigte van sosio-demografiese en ekonomiese veranderlikes. Gewoonste Kleinste Plein (OLS) het ruimtegewens die wisselende verhoudings en vasgestelde homogene groeperings in terme van hul ewekansigheid gemodelleer. Die resultate van die studie het getoon dat die hipotese waar was met die bevindings dat "besit, maar nie ten volle afbetaal nie" by "HH ouderdomsgroep 35 -49". So 'n verblyf was egter ook groter vir die blanke bevolkingsgroep by "HH ouderdomsgroep 20 -34" in vergelyking met ander groepe. Ongelukkig weerspreek die besit van 'besit en ten volle afbetaal' die hipotese op grond daarvan dat dit oorheersend en groter was by HH-ouderdomsgroepe bo 50. Daarbenewens was beide tipes eienaarskap sterk geklust op spesifieke gebiede binne die studiegebied.

Masters