Long-term thermal sensitivity of Earth’s tropical forests
2020
Sullivan, Martin, J P | Lewis, Simon | Affum-Baffoe, Kofi | Castilho, Carolina | Costa, Flávia | Sanchez, Aida Cuni | Ewango, Corneille | Hubau, Wannes | Marimon, Beatriz | Monteagudo-Mendoza, Abel | Qie, Lan | Sonke, Bonaventure | Martinez, Rodolfo Vasquez | Baker, Timothy | Brienen, Roel | Feldpausch, Ted | Galbraith, David | Gloor, Manuel | Malhi, Yadvinder | Aiba, Shin-Ichiro | Alexiades, Miguel | Almeida, Everton | de Oliveira, Edmar Almeida | Davila, Esteban Alvarez | Loayza, Patricia Alvarez | Andrade, Ana | Vieira, Simone Aparecida | Aragao, Luiz | Araujo-Murakami, Alejandro | Arets, Eric | Arroyo, Luzmila | Ashton, Peter | Aymard C., Gerardo | Baccaro, Fabrício | Banin, Lindsay | Baraloto, Christopher | Camargo, Plínio Barbosa | Barlow, Jos | Barroso, Jorcely | Bastin, Jean-Francois | Batterman, Sarah | Beeckman, Hans | Begne, Serge | Bennett, Amy | Berenguer, Erika | Berry, Nicholas | Blanc, Lilian | Boeckx, Pascal | Bogaert, Jan | Bonal, Damien | Bongers, Frans | Bradford, Matt | Brearley, Francis | Brncic, Terry | Brown, Foster | Burban, Benoît | Camargo, José Luís | Castro, Wendeson | Cerón, Carlos | Ribeiro, Sabina Cerruto | Moscoso, Victor Chama | Chave, Jérôme | Chezeaux, Eric | Clark, Connie | de Souza, Fernanda Coelho | Collins, Murray | Comiskey, James | Valverde, Fernando Cornejo | Medina, Massiel Corrales | da Costa, Lola | Dančák, Martin | Dargie, Greta | Davies, Stuart | Cardozo, Nallaret Davila | de Haulleville, Thales | de Medeiros, Marcelo Brilhante | del Aguila Pasquel, Jhon | Derroire, Géraldine | Di Fiore, Anthony | Doucet, Jean-Louis | Dourdain, Aurélie, K. | Droissart, Vincent | Duque, Luisa Fernanda | Ekoungoulou, Romeo | Elias, Fernando | Erwin, Terry | Esquivel-Muelbert, Adriane | Fauset, Sophie | Ferreira, Joice | Llampazo, Gerardo Flores | Foli, Ernest | Ford, Andrew | Gilpin, Martin | Hall, Jefferson | Hamer, Keith | Hamilton, Alan | Harris, David | Hart, Terese | Hédl, Radim | Hérault, Bruno | Herrera, Rafael | Higuchi, Niro | Hladik, Annette | Coronado, Eurídice Honorio | Huamantupa-Chuquimaco, Isau | Huasco, Walter Huaraca | Jeffery, Kathryn | Jimenez-Rojas, Eliana | Kalamandeen, Michelle | Djuikouo, Marie Noël Kamdem | Kearsley, Elizabeth | Umetsu, Ricardo Keichi | Kho, Lip Khoon | Killeen, Timothy | Kitayama, Kanehiro | Klitgaard, Bente | Koch, Alexander | Labrière, Nicolas | Laurance, William | Laurance, Susan | Leal, Miguel | Levesley, Aurora | Lima, Adriano | Lisingo, Janvier | Lopes, Aline | Lopez-Gonzalez, Gabriela | Lovejoy, Tom | Lovett, Jon | Lowe, Richard, K | Magnusson, William | Malumbres-Olarte, Jagoba | Manzatto, Ângelo Gilberto | Marimon, Ben Hur | Marshall, Andrew, M. | Marthews, Toby | de Almeida Reis, Simone Matias | Maycock, Colin | Melgaço, Karina | Mendoza, Casimiro | Metali, Faizah | Mihindou, Vianet | Milliken, William | Mitchard, Edward | Morandi, Paulo | Mossman, Hannah | Nagy, Laszlo | Nascimento, Henrique | Neill, David | Nilus, Reuben | Vargas, Percy Núñez | Palacios, Walter | Camacho, Nadir Pallqui | Peacock, Julie | Pendry, Colin | Peñuela Mora, Maria Cristina | Pickavance, Georgia | Pipoly, John | Pitman, Nigel | Playfair, Maureen | Poorter, Lourens | Poulsen, John | Poulsen, Axel Dalberg | Preziosi, Richard | Prieto, Adriana | Primack, Richard | Ramirez-Angulo, Hirma | Reitsma, Jan | Réjou-Méchain, Maxime | Correa, Zorayda Restrepo | de Sousa, Thaiane Rodrigues | Bayona, Lily Rodriguez | Roopsind, Anand | Rudas, Agustín | Rutishauser, Ervan | Abu Salim, Kamariah | Salomão, Rafael, P | Schietti, Juliana | Sheil, Douglas | Silva, Richarlly | Espejo, Javier Silva | Valeria, Camila Silva | Silveira, Marcos | Simo-Droissart, Murielle | Simon, Marcelo Fragomeni | Singh, James | Soto Shareva, Yahn Carlos | Stahl, Clement | Stropp, Juliana | Sukri, Rahayu | Sunderland, Terry | Svátek, Martin | Swaine, Michael | Swamy, Varun | Taedoumg, Hermann | Talbot, Joey | Taplin, James | Taylor, David | ter Steege, Hans | Terborgh, John | Thomas, Raquel | Thomas, Sean | Torres-Lezama, Armando | Umunay, Peter | Gamarra, Luis Valenzuela | van Der Heijden, Geertje | van Der Hout, Peter | van Der Meer, Peter | van Nieuwstadt, Mark | Verbeeck, Hans | Vernimmen, Ronald | Vicentini, Alberto | Vieira, Ima Célia Guimarães | Torre, Emilio Vilanova | Vleminckx, Jason | Vos, Vincent | Wang, Ophelia | White, Lee | Willcock, Simon | Woods, John | Wortel, Verginia | Young, Kenneth | Zagt, Roderick | Zemagho, Lise | Zuidema, Pieter | Zwerts, Joeri | Phillips, Oliver | University of Leeds | Mensurat Unit ; Forestry Research Institute of Ghana (FORIG) | Centro de Pesquisa Agroflorestal de Roraima ; Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation = Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária (Embrapa) | Sch Geog ; University of Nottingham, UK (UON) | Missouri Botanical Garden | Higher Teachers' Training College, University of Maroua (HTTC-UMA) | School of Geography [Leeds] ; University of Leeds | The University of Edinburgh | School of Geography and the Environment, Environmental Change Institute ; University of Oxford | Grad Sch Sci & Engn ; Kagoshima University | University of Kent [Canterbury] | Universidade Federal do Mato Grosso (UFMT) | Universidad Nacional de Colombia | Duke University [Durham] | Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia = National Institute of Amazonian Research (INPA) | Universidade Estadual de Campinas = University of Campinas (UNICAMP) | National Institute for Space Research [Sao José dos Campos] = Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE) | Universidad Autonoma Gabriel René Moreno (UAGRM) | Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen] (WUR) | Dept Organism & Evolutionary Biol ; Harvard University | Ecologie des forêts de Guyane (ECOFOG) ; Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Université des Antilles et de la Guyane (UAG)-AgroParisTech-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) | Universidade de São Paulo = University of São Paulo (USP) | Universidade Federal do Acre (UFAC) | Research Unit of Landscape Ecology and Plant Production Systems ; Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB) | School of Engineering and Science ; Jacobs University = Constructor University [Bremen] | Lancaster Environment Centre ; Lancaster University | Sch Geosci ; The University of Edinburgh | Laboratory of Applied Physical Chemistry ; Universiteit Gent = Ghent University = Université de Gand (UGENT) | Biodiversité et Paysage ; Gembloux Agro-Bio Tech [Faculté universitaire des sciences agronomiques de Gembloux] ([FUSAGx]) ; Université de Liège = University of Liège = Universiteit van Luik = Universität Lüttich (ULiège)-Université de Liège = University of Liège = Universiteit van Luik = Universität Lüttich (ULiège) | SILVA (SILVA) ; AgroParisTech-Université de Lorraine (UL)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE) | Forest Ecol & Forest Management Grp ; Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen] (WUR) | CSIRO Land and Water ; Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Australia] (CSIRO) | Woods Hole Research Center ; Partenaires INRAE | Herbario Alfredo Paredes ; Universidad Agraria del Ecuador | Universidad Nacional de San Antonio Abad del Cusco (UNSAAC) | Evolution et Diversité Biologique (EDB) ; Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) ; Communauté d'universités et établissements de Toulouse (Comue de Toulouse)-Communauté d'universités et établissements de Toulouse (Comue de Toulouse)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) | Rougier Gabon | Andes to Amazon Biodiversity Program | Federal University of Para - Universidade Federal do Pará - UFPA [Belém, Brazil] (UFPA) | Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute | Universidad Nacional de la Amazonía Peruana [Loreto, Perou] (UNAP) | AgroParisTech | University of Texas at Austin [Austin] | Université de Liège = University of Liège = Universiteit van Luik = Universität Lüttich (ULiège) | Ecologie des forêts de Guyane (UMR ECOFOG) ; Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-AgroParisTech-Université de Guyane (UG)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université des Antilles (UA) | Botanique et Modélisation de l'Architecture des Plantes et des Végétations (UMR AMAP) ; Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [Occitanie])-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE) | Laboratoire des Milieux Désordonnés et Hétérogènes (LMDH) ; Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) | Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation = Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária (Embrapa) | Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Australia] (CSIRO) | Royal Botanic Gardens [Kew] | Czech Academy of Sciences [Prague] (CAS) | Commissariat général du Plan (CGP) ; Premier ministre | Instituto Nacional de Pequisas da Amazônia ; Instituto National de Pequisas da Amazonia Brazil | Éco-Anthropologie (EA 7206) ; Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) | Agence Nationale des Parcs Nationaux, ; Agence Nationale des Parcs Nationaux du Gabon (ANPN) | Universiteit Gent = Ghent University = Université de Gand (UGENT) | Malaysian Palm Oil Board | Kyoto University | Institute of Inorganic and Analytical Chemistry ; Friedrich-Schiller-Universität Jena = Friedrich Schiller University Jena = Université de Iéna [Jena, Germany] (FSU) | James Cook University (JCU) | Laboratoire d'Etude de l'Apprentissage et du Développement [Dijon] (LEAD) ; Université de Bourgogne (UB)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) | Coordenac Bao de Pesquisas em Ecologia ; Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia = National Institute of Amazonian Research (INPA) | Universidade do Estado de Mato Grosso = Mato Grosso State University (UNEMAT) | University of Mary Washington | Chercheur indépendant | Department of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology ; Medical and Health Science Center | Instituto Superior Técnico (IST / Técnico Lisboa) | Universidad Estatal Amazonica | Forest Research Centre (FRC) | Forest Ecology and Forest Management Group ; Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen] (WUR) | Natural History Museum [Oslo] ; University of Oslo (UiO) | Bur Waarderburg | Iwokrama International Centre for Rainforest Conservation and Development | CarboForExpert | Museu Paraense Emílio Goeldi [Belém, Brésil] (MPEG) | Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR) ; Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research [CGIAR] (CGIAR) | University of Yaoundé 1 = Université de Yaoundé I | JRC Institute for Environment and Sustainability (IES) ; European Commission - Joint Research Centre [Ispra] (JRC) | Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, School of Biological Sciences ; University of Aberdeen | Plant Systemat & Ecol Lab ; Université de Yaoundé I (UY1) | Department of Neurology ; Great Ormond Street Hospital for Children [London] (GOSH) | Naturalis Biodiversity Center [Leiden] | Division of Marine Science and Conservation, Nicholas School of the Environment ; Duke University [Durham] | Instituto de Investigaciones para el Desarrollo Forestal ; Universidad de los Andes [Bogota] (UNIANDES) | University of Wisconsin–Milwaukee | Van der Hout Forestry Consulting | University Medical Center Groningen [Groningen] (UMCG) | Computational & Applied Vegetation Ecology (CAVElab) ; Universiteit Gent = Ghent University = Université de Gand (UGENT) | Universidad de los Andes [Bogota] (UNIANDES) | Department of Integrative Biology [Berkeley] (IB) ; University of California [Berkeley] (UC Berkeley) ; University of California (UC)-University of California (UC) | Sch Earth Sci & Environm Sustainabil ; Northern Arizona University [Flagstaff] | University of Stirling | Biol Sci ; Liverpool John Moore University (ljmu) | Biodiversity Department ; Center for Agricultural Research in Suriname (CELOS)
International audience
Show more [+] Less [-]English. The sensitivity of tropical forest carbon to climate is a key uncertainty in predicting global climate change. Although short-term drying and warming are known to affect forests, it is unknown if such effects translate into long-term responses. Here, we analyze 590 permanent plots measured across the tropics to derive the equilibrium climate controls on forest carbon. Maximum temperature is the most important predictor of aboveground biomass (−9.1 megagrams of carbon per hectare per degree Celsius), primarily by reducing woody productivity, and has a greater impact per °C in the hottest forests (>32.2°C). Our results nevertheless reveal greater thermal resilience than observations of short-term variation imply. To realize the long-term climate adaptation potential of tropical forests requires both protecting them and stabilizing Earth’s climate.
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