A Simplified Approach to Risk Assessment Based on System Dynamics: An Industrial Case Study
2016
Garbolino, Emmanuel | Chery, Jean-Pierre | Guarnieri, Franck | Centre de recherche sur les Risques et les Crises (CRC) ; Mines Paris - PSL (École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris) ; Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL) | Territoires, Environnement, Télédétection et Information Spatiale (UMR TETIS) ; Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-AgroParisTech-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
[Departement_IRSTEA]Territoires [TR1_IRSTEA]SYNERGIE [Axe_IRSTEA]TETIS-USIG
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Show more [+] Less [-]English. Seveso plants are complex sociotechnical systems, which makes it appropriate to support any risk assessment with a model of the system. However, more often than not, this step is only partially addressed, simplified, or avoided in safety reports. At the same time, investigations have shown that the complexity of industrial systems is frequently a factor in accidents, due to interactions between their technical, human, and organizational dimensions. In order to handle both this complexity and changes in the system over time, this article proposes an original and simplified qualitative risk evaluation method based on the system dynamics theory developed by Forrester in the early 1960s. The methodology supports the development of a dynamic risk assessment framework dedicated to industrial activities. It consists of 10 complementary steps grouped into two main activities: system dynamics modeling of the sociotechnical system and risk analysis. This system dynamics risk analysis is applied to a case study of a chemical plant and provides a way to assess the technological and organizational components of safety.
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