Impacts of Natural Disasters on a Dynamic Economy
2015
Groth, Andreas | Dumas, Patrice | Ghil, Michael | Hallegatte, Stéphane | Centre d'Enseignement et de Recherche sur l'Environnement et la Societé / Environmental Research and Teaching Institute (CERES-ERTI) ; École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) ; Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL) | Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD) ; Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X) ; Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-École nationale des ponts et chaussées (ENPC)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS-PSL ; École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) ; Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) ; Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL) | University of California [Los Angeles] (UCLA) ; University of California (UC) | centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement (CIRED) ; Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS)-AgroParisTech-École nationale des ponts et chaussées (ENPC)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) | Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad) | Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics [Los Angeles] (IGPP) ; University of California [Los Angeles] (UCLA) ; University of California (UC)-University of California (UC) | La Banque Mondiale = The World Bank (BM = WB) ; World Bank Group = Groupe Banque Mondiale (WBG = GBM) | Mario Chavez | Michael Ghil | Jaime Urrutia-Fucugauchi
International audience
Show more [+] Less [-]English. This paper presents a modeling framework for macroeconomic growth dynamics ; it is motivated by recent attempts to formulate and study " integrated models " of the coupling between natural and socioeconomic phenomena. The challenge is to describe the interfaces between human activities and the functioning of the earth system. We examine the way that this interface works in the presence of endogenous business cycle dynamics, based on a non-equilibrium dynamic model. Recent findings about the macroeconomic response to natural disasters in such a nonequilibrium setting have shown a more severe response to natural disasters during expansions than during recessions. These findings raise questions about the assessment of climate change damages or natural disaster losses that are based purely on long-term growth models. In order to compare the theoretical findings with observational data, we analyze cyclic behavior in the U.S. economy, based on multivariate singular spectrum analysis. We analyze a total of nine aggregate indicators in a 52-year interval (1954–2005) and demonstrate that the behavior of the U.S. economy changes significantly between intervals of growth and recession , with higher volatility during expansions.
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