Analysing the Impact of Land Subsidence on the Flooding Risk: Evaluation Through InSAR and Modelling

Floods greatly impact human settlements in flood risk areas, such as floodplains and coastal lowlands, following heavy rainfall. The Alto Guadalentin valley, an orogenic tectonic depression, experiences extreme flash floods and land subsidence due to groundwater withdrawal, rendering it one of Europe's fastest subsiding regions. In this study, we compared two 2D flood event models representing different land subsidence scenarios for 1992 and 2016. To determine the flooded area and water depth variations due to land subsidence, the Hydrologic Engineering Centre River Analysis System 2D (HEC-RAS 2D) model was used to simulate flood inundation by the Alto Guadalentin River and its tributaries. Synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellite (ERS, ENVISAT, and Cosmo-SkyMED) images were employed, along with the interferometric SAR (InSAR) technique, to calculate the magnitude and spatial distribution of land subsidence. By analysing the accumulated subsidence distributions obtained from InSAR, the original topography of the valley in 1992 and 2016 was reconstructed. These digital surface models (DSMs) were then used to generate 2D hydraulic models, simulating flood scenarios in the unsteady mode. The results demonstrated significant changes in the water surface elevation over the 14-year period, with a 2.04 km2 increase in areas with water depths exceeding 0.7 m. These findings were utilized to create a flood risk map and assess the economic flood risk. The data highlight the crucial role of land subsidence in determining the inundation risk in the Alto Guadalentin valley, providing valuable insights for emergency management and civil protection against future potential flooding events.

Open Access funding provided thanks to the CRUE-CSIC agreement with Springer Nature. For this paper María Navarro-Hernandez is funded by the PRIMA programme supported by the European Union under grant agreement No 1924, project RESERVOIR. This research also was carried out in the framework of ESA-MOST China DRAGON-5 project (ref. 59339).