Changes in decay risk of wood in ground contact over Europe, from analysis of historic climate conditions
2024
van Niekerk, Philip Bester | Marais, Brendan Nicholas | Alfredsen, Gry | Brischke, Christian
Changing climate conditions will affect global temperature and precipitation patterns, shifting some geographical areas into states that are more suitable for fungal wood decay. Climate normals, which are taken over a 30-year period, capture vast spatial and temporal variations in these conditions and comparing these can show changes over time. Importantly, being able to identify locations that have an increased risk of fungal decay for wood in ground contact can help to inform industries that are reliant on wooden components to respond in order to maintain the desired service life of their infrastructure. Soil temperature and moisture data from ERA5-Land were used in a dose-response model for in-ground wood decay. This dose was used as a decay risk indicator to produce hazard maps over the European continent and adjacent regions for the past two climate normals (1963-1992 and 1993-2022). Across the majority of the European continent, dose increased. This was most significant at 40-55° N and 200-800 m above sea level, where increasing temperatures have moved further north and into higher altitudes. A small decrease in dose in northern Africa and the Middle East occurred due to more arid conditions and also in Ireland due to heavy rainfall. With further projected climate change in the future, it is important to understand the drivers and patterns of in-ground wood decay, as increases in suitable growing conditions can lead to a higher risk of decay and may necessitate more durable wood products in some areas if an increase in risk is identified.
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