Cost-effective priority areas for the conservation of the Maulino coastal forest and Cost-effectiveness gains by considering climate change effects in reserve network planning of Nothofagus alessandrii (Ruil)

The most common vegetation in the Maule region of central Chile is sclerophyllous forest. The microclimate weather on the west oriented hillsides of the coastal range of the Maule region, however, allows the occurrence of the mesophyllous Maulino coastal forest (Torres-Díaz, et al., 2007; Santelices et al., 2011). Its floristic composition is characterized with deciduous tree species, evergreen-sclerophyllous trees and shrubs (Santelices et al., 2011). This forest is represented by formations dominated by species of the genus Nothofagus, such as Nothofagus glauca (hualo) and Nothofagus obliqua (roble). It harbors endemic plants and, in particular, highly threatened tree species of the Nothofagus genus (Villalobos & Huenchuleo-Pedreros, 2010; Santelices et al., 2011). The Nothofagus genus is part of the Fagacea family and includes 40 species only located to the south of the equator (Villalobos & Huenchuleo-Pedreros, 2010). Nearly all Nothofagus species are concentrated in the south center of Chile, specifically, in the Chilean forests amidst the latitudes 33°S and 55.5°S (San Martín & Sepulveda, 2002; Villalobos & Huenchuleo-Pedreros, 2010; Silva-Muñoz, 2012). Nothofagus glauca (hualo) and Nothofagus obliqua (roble) has a vulnerable state of preservation according to the “International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN)”. This forest is refuge of the most threatened Nothofagus species of the country: Nothofagus alessandrii (San Martín et al., 2006; Santelices et al., 2011). Along with Gomortega Keule and Pitavia punctata, the IUCN assigns these three trees a critical conservation status (IUCN, 2001; San Martín & Sepulveda, 2002; Arnold et al., 2009; Silva-Muñoz, 2012). According to Olivares et al. (2005), Nothofagus alessandrii is at the verge of extinction if no specific conservation measures are applied. The Maulino coastal forest is situated in 16 municipalities in the west side of the Maule region and covers 53,945 hectares, representing 13% of the region’s coastal forest area. The extent of the Maulino coastal forest including its Nothofagus alessandrii remnants was substantially reduced from the expansion of agriculture as well as plantations of the exotic pine species Pinus radiata. Furthermore, the Maulino coastal forest is viewed as vulnerable to further damage from climate change (Olivares et al., 2005). Global warming is predicted to alter the dispersal of global flora (Pliscoff, 2013) and, consequently, the habitat for vulnerable and critically threatened species. With likely climate change effects on the Maulino coastal forest, Nothofagus alessandrii may be in particular danger (Olivares et_al.,_2005; San Martín et_al.,_2006; Santelices et_al.,_2012). Much of its remaining environment exists in fragments of Maulino coastal forest, surrounded by Pinus radiata plantations. The pine invades the Maulino coastal forest, placing additional pressure on the Nothofagus alessandrii (Olivares et al., 2005). According to the Chilean law, Decree Law 2,186 (Organic Law of Expropriation Procedure), the Chilean conservation agencies cannot implement protected areas on private land without compensating landowners for financial losses. Thus, funds for extra preservation of nature are in particularly short stock in Chile (Pliscoff, 2013). Therefore, funds for preservation must be employed very efficiently (Wilson et al., 2009; Pliscoff, 2013). To optimize conservation planning from cost-effectiveness point of view, spatial conservation priorities must be identified that meet intended biodiversity targets while reducing conservation costs (Barth, 2016). With respect to the Maulino coastal forest, such an optimization is the central objective of this thesis. There are several methods and tools to optimize costs associated with conservation planning. One of them is spatial conservation prioritization. Spatial conservation prioritization is a biogeographic economic procedure used for determining sites for biodiversity preservation that optimally equilibrates the achievement of conservation goals and cost (Pliscoff, 2013; Duarte et al, 2014). It uses quantitative, spatially explicit data to recognize places for the location of funds for preservation. In addition to this, these methods, allow incorporated the effect of climate change in the research (Wilson_et al.,_2009; Pliscoff, 2013). Here, I present a regional analysis of cost-effective spatial conservation priorities that accounts for opportunity costs linked to the renunciation of the profits coming from agriculture or forestry production in Chile’s Maule region. The focus is on how agricultural and forest areas and their subsequent land uses compete with the Maulino coastal forest for space. The analysis uses modeled species distribution data that incorporate climate change effects. With this research, I seek to reduce the economic impact of forest biodiversity preservation in central Chile – hoping to, simultaneously, (i) limit impacts on regional livelihoods and (ii) increase the prospects for the realization of a well-designed network of protected natural sites for the Maulino coastal forest and its species. I performed the analysis with the conservation planning software Marxan. Marxan recognizes cost-effective priority sites that reach a preset conservation targets (Ball et al., 2009). In addition to biogeographical data of the Maulino coastal forest and Nothofagus alessandrii, I used spatial data on the main economically relevant land use types in the study area and two distribution models of Nothofagus alessandrii: a “current distribution model” and a “future distribution model”. The future distribution model was used to incorporate climate change effects. I examined three scenarios in the analysis: a current vegetation data scenario of the Maulino coastal forest, and two modeled scenarios of Nothofagus alessandrii (current and future model scenarios of Nothofagus alessandrii). One level of protection for each scenario was used and a range of Marxan adjustments (BLM and SPF) were explored. The final output is a set of cost-effective reserve networks for the preservation of the Maulino coastal forest and for the preservation and restoration of Nothofagus alessandrii forest. The costs for implementing optimized reserve networks vary from € 1.7 to € 3.6 million: as a function of the required protection grade and the compactness (BLM) of the reserve network. Pinus radiata plantings would be the most affected commercial land use, representing 34% to 40% of the overall surface of the proposed reserve networks. On the other hand, agriculture land comprises only between 0.7% and 1.5%. In part, the low percentage of agriculture is a cost-minimizing result of the spatial optimization process as the opportunity cost of agricultural land is higher than that for Pinus radiata plantations. When was taking into account the influence of climate change in Nothofagus alessandrii, the reserve networks produced in the future scenario have a small economic impact. This is because the future scenario surface represents half of the surface of the current scenario. This results in smaller reserve networks. This reduction is because many areas today suitable for Nothofagus alessandrii are forecast to be not suitable in the future for this species as a consequence of climate change.