Greenland Surface Energy Budget Response in CMIP6

The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has been losing mass since the 1990s as a direct consequence of rising temperatures. Greenland has been projected to continue to lose mass at an accelerating pace throughout the 21st century, making it one of the the largest contributors to future sea-level rise. The latest Climate Model Intercomparison Project 6th phase (CMIP6) models produce a greater Arctic amplification signal and therefore also a notably larger mass loss from the GrIS when compared to the older CMIP5 projections, despite similar forcing levels from greenhouse gas emissions. However, it is also argued that the strength of regional factors such as melt-albedo feedbacks and cloud-related feedbacks will partly impact future melt and sea-level rise contribution, but little is yet known about the role of these regional factors in future GrIS surface melt projections when comparing CMIP6 to CMIP5 over Greenland. In this study, we use high-resolution (15 km) simulations over the GrIS performed by using the regional climate model Modéle Atmosphériqe Régional (MAR) to physically downscale six CMIP5 RCP8.5 models and five CMIP6 SSP5-8.5 models. Here, we show a greater annual mass loss from the GrIS, both at the end of the 21$^{\text{st}}$ century, but also for a given temperature increase over the GrIS when comparing CMIP6 to CMIP5. We find a greater sensitivity of Greenland surface mass loss in CMIP6 centred around summer and autumn, yet the difference in mass loss is largest during autumn with a reduction of 14.1 $\pm$ 4.8 mmWE for a regional warming of +6.7$^{\circ}$C, 12.5 mmWE more mass loss than in CMIP5 RCP8.5 simulations. Assessment of the surface energy budget and cloud-related feedbacks suggests a reduction in high clouds during summer and autumn – in addition to enhanced cloud optical depth during autumn – to be the main drivers of the additional energy reaching the surface, subsequently leading to enhanced surface melt and mass loss in CMIP6 SSP5-8.5 compared to CMIP5 RCP8.5. Our analysis highlights that Greenland is losing more mass in CMIP6 due to two factors; 1) a (known) greater sensitivity to greenhouse gas emissions and therefore warmer temperatures, 2) previously undocumented cloud-related surface energy budget changes that enhance the GrIS sensitivity to warming.