The AMOC and Dutch Adaptation: Evaluating Policy Readiness and Potential in the Face of Climate Uncertainty

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) plays a crucial role in the global climate system, influencing weather, sea levels, and ecosystems. Although a total collapse of the AMOC before 2100 is still considered unlikely, scientists agree that its ongoing weakening is a serious concern, especially for low-lying, climate-sensitive countries like the Netherlands. However, despite this, the risks associated with AMOC decline are barely reflected in current Dutch climate change adaptation policies. This thesis examines how well the Netherlands is prepared to deal with such uncertainty. By combining two analytical perspectives, barriers and limits to adaptation, and adaptive comanagement, it looks at how four national strategies approach this challenge: the National Adaptation Strategy (including its 2022 evaluation), the Delta Programme 2025, the National Water Programme 2022–2027, and the Sea Level Rise Knowledge Programme. These policies are analysed alongside insights from eleven semi-structured interviews with policymakers, experts, and researchers. The findings point to a governance system that is institutionally strong and future-oriented, but often constrained in practice. While scenarios, long-term planning, and shared responsibilities are well established, significant obstacles remain to adapting quickly or effectively to unexpected change. Participatory processes, open discussions about uncertainty, and institutional learning remain underdeveloped. Interviewees also pointed to a reluctance, partly political, partly practical, to seriously address low-probability but high-impact scenarios such as a possible AMOC collapse. This thesis does not claim to have all the answers, but it does try to clarify where current policies are working, where they are falling short, and where more flexibility may be needed. As climate risks become more uncertain and interconnected, the ability of Dutch adaptation governance to deal With surprises may prove just as important as its ability to plan.

GE4-304