Simulation on the occurrence of citrus red mite, Panonychus citri, using a system model developed for the occurrence in citrus orchard
1986
Muraoka, M. (Saga-ken. Fruit Tree Experiment Station, Ogi (Japan)) | Shiyomi, M.
Computer simulation on the occurrence of the citrus red mite, Panonychus citri McGreegor, was conducted using a model developed for the occurrence of mite in the citrus orchard. System of differential equations was adopted to analyse the effects of such environmental factors as leaf damage, leaf aging, natural enemies, temperature, precipitation, typhoon and agrochemical treatment on the growth and reproduction of mite. According to the present model, the instantaneous rates of reproduction were 0.1723 at 30 C and 0.1688 at 25 C, and no reproduction occurred at 15 C. Using this model, summer occurrence was simulated in 1978 to 1981. Generally the simulated data adequately fitted to the observed data, however, the time of occurrence was estimated to be earlier in 1978 and a population density was lower in 1980 than observed data. The reason why the simulated data did not fit into the observed ones in 1981 was thought to be mainly due to disagreements of main population regulating factors and parameters between the simulated and observed data
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