[Risk analysis in the selection plans of efficient crop culture in the seventh region]
1994
Ortiz C, Alexis
This research presents an analysis of risk in selection of annual crops with more participation within the seventh region of Chile, and for which there was information available. First a theoretical statement of the Markowitz model and of Mean-PAD (Partial Absolute Deviation), which is derived from Target-MOTAD is made. Once the models have been presented the bases on which the Mean-PAD is supported are analyzed. Based on a matrix of succession of crops in which technical restriction about use, notation and frequency of crops are specified, equation of succession rules used in models are forwarded. Probability of failure is figured in terms of Partial Absolute Deviation (PAD) for each value of expected revenue of the gross profit. Finally, both models are applied to the deflated gross margins of the seven crops selected within the region; the results obtained from the application of both models are compared and these are compared with the results actually observed
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