Maize production and climatic risk in Malawi
1995
Thornton, P.M. | Singh, U. | Kumwenda, J.D.T. | Saka, A.R.
Agricultural activity involves the management of risk, but it is often difficult to quantify production risk in the search for management options that can ameliorate some of its effects. One option is to use appropriate, validated crop simulation models. A maize modelling initiative was undertaken in Malawi from 1989 to 1992. A simulation model of the growth, development and yield of maize was validated for a number of sites in Malawi, involving field trials carried out on experiment stations and in farmers' fields over three seasons. We illustrate some of the weather- related variability in maize production in central Malawi and present a simple way of characterizing season type, based on an analysis of rainfall records. The use of crop models in providing season-specific management recommendations is discussed. When used with care, crop models can help to minimise the effects of down-side risk on smallholders' farm income.
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