Econometric model of Thai sorghum: A simulation analysis
1995
Wisarn Bunphakob
Sorghum is a kind of animal feed that can substitute for corn. Sorghum production in 1991 was only 0.45 percent of the world's production. In the past, almost all Thai sorghum was exported but since 1988 sorghum has been used to substitute for corn as a raw material in the animal feed industry that expanded substantially due to the increase in the export of frozen chicken. Therefore, the demand for sorghum depended on the prices of corn as well as frozen chicken. Result of the study confirmed that the sorghum econometric model can be used to forecast demand and supply of sorghum because of the value of U's Theil is 0.2944 for maximum. The increase in export price of Thai sorghum at 4.8 percent due to GATT agreement will result in the increase in planted area at 5.4 percent, yield at 1.0 percent, total supply at 6.5 percent, domestic demand at 3.9 percent, export demand at 10.3 percent, wholesale price at 2.2 percent and export price at 2.0 percent.
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