Predicting the boom and bust of the broiler industry
2001
Mateo, J.P. | Villar, E.C. | Lambio, A.L. | Animas, S.G. | Prado, F.I. | Garcia, R.M. | De Roma, V.M. (Philippine Council for Agriculture, Forestry and Natural Resources Research and Development, Los Ba¤os, Laguna (Philippines))
The user-friendly software, BROIWARE, was developed to predict the aggregate national inventory of broilers at different stages of production while being able to determine the same on a per farm basis of each importing firm. It was also designed to take into consideration the effects of factors influencing production efficiency such as disease outbreaks, and adverse seasonal episodes. Moreover, it was programmed to help the government draw-up and promulgate sound policy recommendations that redound to stabilize pricing, inventory and importation of broilers. Findings showed that BROIWARE could help in estimating and predicting the broiler inventory in the country at any given period of time. This could be achieved through processing and analysis of actual import data of broiler breeders (PS and GPS) from importing firms gathered from the Quarantine Section, Animal Health Division of the Bureau of Animal Industry (BAI) and the technical assumptions on the biological performance of broilers. BROIWARE focused on the supply side of the broiler industry, and thus could be expanded to include the demand side of the commodity. Institutionalization of BROIWARE and project activities should be lodged within the planning and regulatory offices of DA, and participated in by commercial broiler organization such as the United Broiler Raisers Association (UBRA). Periodic issuance of bulletins to commercial broiler importers and raisers, based on the results generated by BROIWARE, could be a valuable assistance to the stockholders of the broiler industry
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