Modelling of increased CO2 impact of maize yield
2000
Zalud, Z. | Dubrovsky, M. (Mendel University of Agriculture and Forestry, Brno (Czech Republic))
The crop growth model CERES-Maize was used to estimate the effects of increased CO2 and the related climate change on grain yields of maize. The analysis was based on comparison of the model yields obtained in multi-year crop simulation experiments run with weather series representing present and changed climate conditions. The synthetic weather series, representing a changed climate, were obtained by means of a stochastic weather generator (WG approach). The crop simulations were run under two environmental settings: stressed yields were simulated in water and nutrients limited conditions, potential yields were simulated in water and nutrients unlimited conditions. The direct (through increased fertilization effect of ambient CO2) and indirect (through changed weather related to an enhanced greenhouse effect) effects of increased CO2 on both stressed and potential yields in the simulated WG approach are assessed. The climate change scenario is based on the daily output from the equilibrium GCM experiment (ECHAM3/T42). The scenario includes changes in variability. Prior to the analysis, the crop model validation was performed showing very good fit between the observed and modelled yields of maize
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