Spatial modeling of baselines for LULUCF [land-use, land-use change and forestry] carbon projects: the GEOMOD modeling approach
2003
Dushku, A. (Winrock International 1621 N. Kent St., Suite 1200 Arlington, Virginia 22209 (USA) Brown, S.
Presently, the Clean Development Mechanism of the Kyoto Protocol does not allow for crediting of projects that offset carbon dioxide emissions by preventing emissions elsewhere through averted changes in land use (or forestry). Part of criticism of these types of projects was that projections of "without-project" baselines lacked the scientific integrity and accuracy on which to base crediting. Since 1999, Winrock International has been evaluating peer-reviewed methods for the modeling of baseline in six regions in Latin America. The model that achieved the highest overall ranking of those tested is called GEOMOD. GEOMOD strengths lie in its ease of use, its transparency, its replicability and its internal validation capability, which provides quantitative measures of the goodness of fit of modeled landscapes. It is a spatial model that employs geographic information system (GIS) technology to analyze biophysical and socio-cultural factors to map the potential for land-use changes to occur. Modeling baseline in land-use change is important for consideration when planning not only conservation projects but also afforestation and reforestation projects
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