Use of simulation-based approach for estimation of agricultural risks
Merkurjevs, J.(Riga Technical Univ. (Latvia). Faculty of Computer Science and Information Technology. Dept. of Modelling and Simulation)E-mail:[email protected] | Bardacenko, V.(Riga Technical Univ. (Latvia). Faculty of Computer Science and Information Technology. Dept. of Modelling and Simulation)E-mail:[email protected] | Ruza, A.(Latvia Univ. of Agriculture, Jelgava (Latvia). Faculty of Agriculture. Dept. of Plant Production)E-mail:[email protected] | Solomenikova, I.(Latvian Council of Science, Riga (Latvia). Secretariate)E-mail:[email protected]
The paper presents general results of stochastic simulation model of agricultural operations. The aim of the model is quantitative estimation of farmer's choice of agricultural operation strategy. The paper deals with the influence of unpredictability of weather conditions affecting operation efficiency. The resulting atmospheric influence is modelled as random changes to an agricultural operation start time. The agricultural function value on a given day determines the future crop value harvested from the respective area. The simulation model is explored for experimenting with different input parameters in order to find such ones that lead to an optimal farmer strategy in situations, when the average statistical inaccuracy of the weather forecast is known. The present paper concentrates on two main numerical parameters of farmer's strategy, namely: agricultural operation start time; intensity of the operation, i.e. number of days to be spent on processing the given plot of farmland.
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