Risk analysis in Turkey milk production
2007
Kizilaslan, H.,Gaziosmanpasa Univ., Tokat (Turkey). Dept. of Agricultural Economics | Kizilaslan, N.,Gaziosmanpasa Univ., Tokat (Turkey). Dept. of Agricultural Economics
Milk yield, gross revenues, and price levels were taken into account to determine the risk inherent in the milk production in Turkey. Fluctuations were found in the milk yield, prices, and gross revenues. Based on the hypothesis that the information possessed by the producer on the economic and technological developments is scarce and restrained, variable coefficients were calculated as follows: 10.81% for yield, 23.26% for prices, and 30.01% for gross revenues, respectively. With the hypothesis that the producers are aware of and informed on the economic and technological developments, these ratios, that is to say, the fortuitous variable coefficients would be 2.07%, 15.96%, and 16.07%, respectively. In conclusion, as producers cannot take rational decisions, government intervention will be necessary. Furthermore, producers should be given informational support through published studies.
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